Turning point in Ukraine war: can Warsaw and Kyiv protect each other from Russian strikes?
global.espreso.tv
Wed, 10 Sep 2025 16:56:00 +0300

ContentsFrom the idea of 'NATO, close the sky' to SkyShieldAttack on Poland as a turning pointCan Poland help Ukraine shoot down Shaheds and missiles, and Kyiv – help Warsaw?The Russian drone attack on Poland on September 10, when Polish and Dutch fighters for the first time shot down these threats under NATO command, revived the discussion. Will this incident become a push toward the joint defense of the skies of Ukraine and Poland? Espreso tells more.From the idea of 'NATO, close the sky' to SkyShield
At the start of the full-scale invasion, one of the loudest demands of Ukrainian society towards its Western allies was the closure of Ukraine’s sky by the North Atlantic Alliance. The slogan 'NATO, close the sky' or 'No-fly zone' meant that NATO aircraft would strike all aerial targets in the designated area. This way, civilians would feel much safer from enemy strikes. The Ukrainian authorities also repeatedly appealed to NATO with this request, arguing that without an air shield, Ukraine would not be able to effectively resist the aggressor.However, the idea of a 'closed sky' ran into the harsh reality of geopolitics. NATO leaders directly rejected it, citing the risk of direct conflict with Russia, a nuclear state."If we do this, in our assessment we will end up with something that may result in a full-scale war in Europe, involving far more countries and causing far more human suffering," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said back in early March 2022.Instead, NATO chose a strategy of support – supplying Ukraine with increasingly modern air defense systems, EW, and aircraft so that Ukrainians themselves would shoot down Russian threats. Thus, Ukraine built up strong air defense, which today allows intercepting 80–90% of many types of aerial threats (primarily Shaheds, which Russia first began using in autumn 2022).At the same time, less radical proposals for joint air defense began to circulate. The most well-known is the European SkyShield for Ukraine. The plan envisions creating an integrated air defense zone over the country, managed by a coalition of willing NATO member states, but independently from NATO’s official command. That would mean European fighters patrolling the skies alongside Ukrainian ones, but in different zones: NATO planes over safer western and central regions, Ukrainians over areas closer to the front line – minimizing the risk of clashes with Russian warplanes. Still, there are heated debates, particularly whether the U.S. would join and what to do if Russians attack European fighters."If one European plane goes down and a pilot is killed, it will be very hard for the government to explain. If a Greek pilot goes to Ukraine and dies, this could bring down the government," Konstantinos Zikidis of the Greek Air Force told Al Jazeera in May this year.Attack on Poland as a turning point
On the night of September 10, hundreds of Russian drones and dozens of missiles attacked Ukraine. At least 19 drones (according to Rzeczpospolita, 23) entered Polish airspace – a NATO country – and for the first time were downed by Polish and Dutch jets under NATO command. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said 3–4 drones were neutralized. Poland’s Interior Ministry later reported that by noon of September 10, seven drones and debris of a missile of “unknown origin” were found. Some drones flew over 250 km deep into Poland."There would be nothing unusual about this, were it not for the scale of the attack and the number of drones and missiles involved," Tusk remarked in reassurance.Indeed, throughout the war, Russian drones have repeatedly violated NATO airspace – with several recent incidents in Poland. But this time was different: it was a mass arrival, not isolated “accidental” drones allegedly straying off course."For the first time since the war began, they came not from Ukraine by mistake, disorientation, or limited provocations. For the first time, a significant number entered Poland directly from Belarus," said Tusk, highlighting a new vector of attacks.Belarus meanwhile claimed it had downed some drones headed toward Poland and Lithuania, even saying it “shared information” with Polish and Lithuanian counterparts. Russia dismissed accusations as “groundless” and refused official comment.In response, Poland invoked NATO Article 4, closed airports, raised readiness, and convened allied consultations. President Karol Nawrocki called it “an unprecedented moment in NATO’s history, but also in the history of this new Poland.”NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called the violation “absolutely reckless,” adding that assessment was still ongoing but sending Putin a clear message:"Stop the war in Ukraine. Stop violating allied airspace. Know that we are ready, vigilant, and will defend every inch of NATO territory."Experts widely interpret Russia’s move as deliberate escalation: testing NATO’s reaction, probing Polish air defense ahead of upcoming Russo-Belarusian “Zapad-2025” drills, and trying to intimidate the West and disrupt arms supplies to Ukraine through Poland by demonstrating Moscow’s impunity."This is exactly how Nazi Germany tested the world’s readiness – from the Rhineland, from the Sudetenland, from Prague. And each time, the West convinced itself ‘this is not yet war, this can still be endured.’ Now Putin acts the same way. And whether NATO has the resolve to respond to the strike on Poland will determine not only Ukraine’s fate, but that of the West itself," argues journalist and political analyst Vitaly Portnikov.Can Poland help Ukraine shoot down Shaheds and missiles, and Kyiv – Warsaw?
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, commenting on the drones over Poland, again raised the old question of joint interception of Russian threats in Ukrainian airspace. He stressed the importance of the “precedent of several European countries’ combat aviation simultaneously shooting down Russian weapons and protecting lives.”"Ukraine has long proposed creating a joint air defense system with our partners, ensuring guaranteed shoot-downs of Shaheds, other drones, and missiles thanks to combined strength. Together Europeans are always stronger," the president wrote.Zelenskyy added that Ukraine is ready to expand cooperation for “reliable air protection.”"Not just information-sharing or intelligence exchange, but real joint action in the sky ensuring neighbors’ security. Russia must feel that Europeans can defend themselves," he noted.Former head of Poland’s National Security Bureau, General Stanisław Koziej, told Slawa TV: if NATO wants to stop escalation, it must move from rhetoric to action. He said the situation does not trigger NATO Article 5, since no strategic or infrastructure targets in Poland were directly attacked. Still, Poland should demand a stronger air defense zone along the border, intercepting drones and missiles even over Ukraine."Ukraine is interested in such a solution. I have long proposed this concept. This Russian attack gives enough arguments to persuade allies. Militarily it is possible – NATO and Ukrainian cooperation on air defense. But it needs a political decision," the general said.If that decision proves too difficult, he added, NATO at minimum would have to reinforce Poland’s eastern border with more forces and equipment capable of countering drones.Aviation expert Valerii Romanenko of the State Aviation Museum told Espreso the same – militarily it’s possible, but political will is needed. Plus, many practical issues must be resolved, such as responsibility if debris falls and causes damage."This requires clear sectors of responsibility. For example, no one will shoot from Poland into Lviv’s skies. But near Yavoriv or the training range, where there’s open land, it may be possible. First, we must see if the Poles agree to this. Everything else could be worked out in practice," he explained.He added that if Poland were to request it, Ukrainian forces could cross border lines to assist in shooting down threats, though this raises complicated legal and procedural issues – crossing borders with weapons."Poland has enough means to counter air threats, but lacks the combat experience we possess," Romanenko emphasized.In summary: Poland could help Ukraine shoot down Shaheds and missiles, and Ukraine could help Poland, but it requires a NATO political decision. Zelenskyy proposes a joint air defense system. Militarily it is feasible, but success hinges on coordination, responsibility zones, and resolving fallout issues. Without NATO’s political will – especially approval from U.S. President Donald Trump – joint actions will remain just a proposal.



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