As always, all analytical forecasts, hopes, and fears about its course have been only partially realized. Fundamentally, nothing has changed. We are still on the path of a slow, nonlinear slide of the world toward a Third World War.Indeed, the basic concept of “three simultaneous theaters of war,” long advocated and implemented by the spiritual heirs of Sun Tzu from China, has suffered a setback. Israel and Turkey, unexpectedly acting in a coordinated, strict, and rapid manner (November 2024 – June 2025), removed Iran and its satellites from the playing field, effectively closing one of the theaters. That is why the Chinese dropped their mask of indifference and declared they would not allow Russia to be defeated. In reality, it should have been phrased: “nor allow Russia’s defeat.”“The Chinese know full well that Russia’s defeat is not only possible but likely. And it’s not simply because the Russian economy cannot withstand the strains of war. That’s not the main issue - or at least not the only one. The Chinese are aware that a transfer of power is about to begin in Russia. That this transfer should have started three years ago, that it has fatally stalled, and that this pause grows more destructive - and increasingly toxic - by the day.”Perhaps that’s why top managers there are jumping out of windows, and ministers are taking their own lives with a pistol.Among other things, Russia’s elites do not want to fall under Beijing’s control. Unlike the sociopath Putin, they think more or less rationally; they are not fixated on Ukraine or the illusion of a senseless USSR 2.0. And they simply don’t understand: why play that sour Chinese game when all the winnings will end up in the hands of the rulers of Zhongguo anyway?Even more, these elites do not want to end up in a “new North Korea,” being rapidly built by KGB veterans. Of course, these elites are not capable of systematically opposing the security-service clans. But they have no intention of playing politics either. They are ready to simply betray. At the critical moment, they would dump the post-Putin apparatus with all its posturing and dogmas. All that’s needed is a strong push - a decisive kick.“And a transfer of power, if it begins in Russia during an unfinished, exhausting war, will usher in an era not of mere jolts, but of earthquakes.”The Chinese understand this more precisely and profoundly than Westerners, because their civilizational experience is deeper and closer to the swampy realities. They have long calculated that the Horse Year of 2026 will be pivotal for the shifting interworld of the Great Steppe, already deprived of the blessing-sulde from Mönke-Tengri. They also know that, whatever the khan’s seat is called - Sarai-Batu or Moscow - it lives by the old Mongol rule of Mother Oelun: “ta se’uder-ece busu nokor udei se’ul-ece busu cicu’a ugei bui” (“No friend but one’s own shadow, no whip but the tail”). It endures, just as it did in the time of Belghutai.A century ago, the Chinese decoded Lubsan Danzan’s twilight tale. They know that the fire horses of the twenty-sixth year are already grazing on the Grass of Meetings (Tolugai-du garchu), knowing things no Bloomberg has yet calculated. And so they draw from the jade shabaturka the black beads of Yule.Will it help them? In the previous cycle, as we know, it did not.SourceAbout the author: Volodymyr Yeshkilev, Ukrainian writer, philosopher.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.