Why ceasefire in Ukraine remains unlikely
global.espreso.tv
Sun, 07 Sep 2025 12:49:00 +0300

The axis of evil has been formed, and it will draw in those offended by Trump's tariffs. Ideological totalitarian and authoritarian regimes have no interest in providing for the consumer basket of citizens, because no one elected them and the voice of citizens has no value, just like their lives. The hypothetical North Korean leader will always have enough white bread with black caviar, even if there is famine in the country. Negotiations on security and peace conducted on the basis of conventional business rules and values are doomed to failure. Diplomacy and business can learn a lot from each other, but when practice and ultimate goals are not harmonized, it is extremely difficult to find common ground, and sometimes even naive to expect it, especially in our circumstances.When I was studying at business school, we were shown formulas that could be used to calculate the final price and agreement that all parties would agree to, given the same motives. It's not that simple, but basically, at the start of negotiations, the owner will set an inflated price, and the buyer will make a low offer. During the dialogue, arguments, and nonverbal techniques (showing disinterest on the part of the buyer and seller), they will look for ways to bring their positions closer together, because the buyer definitely wants to buy, and the seller wants to sell, but on favorable terms.However, in diplomacy or geopolitics, which are driven by ideological motives, existential challenges to preserve power by an authoritarian leader or the KGB/FSB system, any means are acceptable. It is impossible to reconcile the positions of Ukraine and Russia today, given that for Ukraine this is a matter of survival, while for Russia, continuing the war is a means of preserving the regime, building and restoring the empire, and ensuring security for the authoritarian leader. What middle ground can be found here?Any agreement (unprofitable, short-lived, inconsistent, but still an agreement) may seem rational only to one player in this geopolitical storm. And attempting territorial concessions at Ukraine's expense is like catching a thief and offering them to keep everything they have stolen. Of course, this may surprise any justice system as an idea, but not today's geopolitical chessboard. It is impossible to find more senseless measures to combat crime, whether local or geopolitical.It is not in Putin's interest to end the war; only the complete collapse of Ukraine and, in the long term, further expansion westward will be acceptable to him. The axis of evil has already been formed and is working effectively every day to achieve its goals of survival and the construction of a new world order, where only the right of force is recognized.That’s why I don’t believe in negotiations today, because the interests of the parties cannot be reconciled. For Ukraine, its defensive capabilities and European actors - who no longer entertain fantasies about a diplomatic track - remain the main deterrent. Arming and strengthening Ukraine is the only way. The sides shift their positions in a war of attrition, losing more than they gain. Russia must suffer maximum losses, and no pleas from the U.S. president will carry weight compared to concrete actions.SourceAbout the author: Olha Aivazovska, Ukrainian civil society activist, Chair of the Board of the OPORA Civic Network.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.
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