Russian aggression is being studied by many countries, general staffs, and military analysts. What is happening now in connection with Russia’s aggression against Ukraine? It is possible that the enemy is preparing for new acts of escalation not only against Ukraine.It is clear that the Russians have learned how to fight a modern war over the past three and a half years in Ukraine. At the beginning of the war, they did not fight well at all, but they have since adapted.They have adjusted to modern conditions, which has improved their performance on the battlefield in Ukraine and strengthened their military overall, making it more capable of aggression against other countries in Scandinavia, the Baltics, and Eastern Europe. Unfortunately, the Russians have also shared what they have learned with the North Koreans, the Chinese, and the Iranians.As a result, what the Russians have gained from their war in Ukraine has become a threat to the rest of the world. This is precisely why the international community should help Ukraine defeat Russia.China is working to expand its global influence and seeks a reshaping of the world order. Much of this ties into its cooperation with Russia, North Korea, and others. How far is China prepared to go if Beijing orders an intervention in Taiwan?China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea all want to overturn the international system that has existed since the end of the Second World War, a system from which they have all benefited.The leaders of China and Russia, in particular, now believe the West is weak and that the war in Ukraine is only the beginning of a larger struggle they intend to wage against the West. In the Pacific, the region where I live, China has been preparing for nearly three decades to invade Taiwan.At the same time, China has engaged in coercion and aggression against countries such as Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Australia. They are a grave threat in the Pacific region, and that threat continues to grow over time.Are there any indicators suggesting that China is preparing for military action?Over the past couple of years we have seen China conduct very large-scale military training exercises around the periphery of Taiwan with ships, aircraft carriers, submarines, and aircraft. It has been firing missiles. China has also been practicing amphibious operations, not only with naval vessels but, as recently as last week, using large civilian ferries to launch amphibious forces in a major exercise. The Chinese have become very capable of carrying out some form of military aggression against Taiwan, though whether they could do so successfully remains an open question.As the saying goes, generals always prepare for the last war. But the world and the technology of war have changed dramatically. Ukrainians and Russians alike have tested unmanned strike systems, drone bombing, and aerial reconnaissance, with production rapidly scaling up. The United States, Europe, and China have all drawn their own lessons. Traditional models of land warfare are now largely obsolete.Russia and China are rearming and training their forces, while our European partners continue to struggle with troop numbers. The question is: what should we be preparing for?I think the world has watched and learned from Ukraine, particularly how it has innovated in modern warfare over the last three and a half years. We have seen a massive expansion in the use of drones, not only in the air but also on the ground and at sea.We have also seen how the Ukrainian military was able to gain control of the western Black Sea from the Russian Navy using missiles and drones. On the battlefield, it has done the same with drones, HIMARS, and digital command and control.Ukraine has shown us that many things have changed, but also that many things remain the same: the need for large-scale mobilization of people to join the military, the need for good training, and, most importantly, the need for strong leadership both on the battlefield and at the strategic level.We have learned many new things from Ukraine, but we have also been reminded of many old lessons of war that many had forgotten until 2022. We owe Ukraine a debt of gratitude for this. Unfortunately, too many militaries have moved too slowly to ensure these lessons are absorbed.We need to accelerate learning, and we need to accelerate change in military organization both in Europe and in the Pacific.Public perception of Trump’s policies raises many questions, and the cohesion of cooperation within the Euro-Atlantic community is far from certain. Critics have spoken out against the positions of Trump, General Hodges, and the Secretary of Defense. Do you have concerns about NATO’s Article 5?President Trump may be genuine in wanting to end the war, but I am not sure he truly understands how to do so. I think he places too much faith in a Russian president who has lied to him and broken every post-war agreement he has signed over the past 20 years.I also believe the U.S. president does not really have a strategy to achieve peace, which makes the peace process very difficult to follow. It is inconsistent and leaves Ukraine and its European partners uncertain about where President Trump’s thinking is at any given moment. Unfortunately, this gives the Russians an advantage. It buys them more time to kill and maim Ukrainians, which should not be tolerated.It would be good to see more consistency from the U.S. administration. And the choice for Washington should not be seen as a 50-50 one between Ukraine and Russia.This is a clear choice between good, represented by Ukraine, and evil, represented by Russia. It is difficult to understand why America has not firmly sided with Ukraine and provided the means to stop Russia – not only in Ukraine, but also in its aggression across Europe, which will come if it is not stopped there.General staffs make their decisions based on intelligence community assessments. What we are witnessing is a shift in global control, with an immense flow of information. Australia and the United States were among the founders of the Five Eyes alliance. How does intelligence sharing function today, and how reliable and active is it?It is a very important arrangement, particularly for Australia, which receives a large amount of valuable intelligence from our American partners, as well as from Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.There are now many new sensors collecting vast amounts of information, and the ability to aggregate and analyze it has become more challenging. Artificial intelligence will play an increasing role in helping to prioritize, search, and extract the most useful information.But just because we can collect enormous amounts of information does not mean we automatically gain wisdom about the situation we are observing. The real key moving forward is ensuring we have the processes and technologies to filter all that data and extract insights that truly make us wiser.We are better at this when we work together. At the same time, I believe countries like Australia, the United States, and those in Europe have much to learn from how Ukraine has conducted intelligence operations during this war. Leaders such as General Budanov and his staff have been at the forefront of transforming the use not only of classified intelligence but also of open-source intelligence to provide military planners with actionable insights.Intelligence can only go so far, but the real decisions are made elsewhere. War, to a great extent, is about numbers and logistics. We are now witnessing entirely new scenarios of warfare. During the special operation “Spiderweb”, drones successfully struck strategic targets inside Russia, the aggressor state. In those conditions, Russia’s air defense systems failed to respond. They are outdated and can be overwhelmed by several hundred drones combined with cruise and ballistic missiles. The war between Russia and Ukraine shows that traditional defense models are becoming obsolete. In modern ground warfare, what truly matters is control of the skies and the land. The navy, by contrast, plays only a minor role today. So, what do Europeans and Ukrainians need to change? And what should we expect from Russia?I think Ukraine has first shown how to penetrate what we once believed were modern air defense systems.This is not easy and requires significant planning, but the Ukrainian military has demonstrated the ability to get under Russian air defenses to carry out complex operations such as their “spiderweb” missions. More recently, the intensified attacks on Russian oil infrastructure – refineries, storage facilities, and pipelines – are slowly but surely crippling Russia’s economy.And if you destroy Russia’s economy, you strip it of the resources it needs to wage war against Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. Ukraine has therefore developed a very sophisticated long-range strike capability that, even five or ten years ago, was unimaginable for a country of its size. Now it is within reach for Ukraine, Australia, and others.All of this is possible because of the lessons we have learned from this war.What should the Armed Forces of Ukraine adjust, and what should we focus on, given the several years of experience in the Russian-Ukrainian war?Well, it is clear that the Ukrainian armed forces have been learning constantly since the beginning of the war.In my visits there, I have seen multiple areas where they continue to change and adapt, because the war itself changes constantly. The feedback from the battlefield to industry for building new weapons has become faster and more effective. The feedback into training systems has also improved.The mobilization system, however, remains an area that requires ongoing attention. This is the nature of modern warfare, but it does present clear challenges for Ukraine.The Ukrainian armed forces have also turned their focus to organization, command and control. The formation of new army corps shows that Ukrainian ground forces have understood they need different structures to fight Russia in 2025 compared to what they used in 2022 or 2023.There are many reasons to see progress in how the Ukrainian military has been learning and adapting, but there are still areas where further improvement is needed.A few weeks ago, I had the honor of speaking with General Wesley Clark, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe. He noted that Russia still has considerable resources and is preparing for large-scale strategic operations. Of course, Russian ambitions are one thing, but their actual capabilities are another. They may want to capture many Ukrainian cities and occupy vast territories, but they have run up against firm resistance – thanks to effective leadership and the smart allocation of resources by Ukraine’s Armed Forces. In your view, what are Russia’s real capabilities?Well, for the last three and a half years we have heard stories about how capable the Russians are and how they are ready for the next big push, but these claims never seem to amount to much.They may capture small amounts of territory, but they suffer massive losses in the process. Russia has had to increase the bounties for recruitment. While they are still able to recruit, it is becoming more and more expensive for them. They have lost most of their modern land weapon systems and tanks. The truth is that Russia is hurting. This has not been a successful war for them. They have been pushed out of the Black Sea.They have failed to achieve air superiority over Ukraine. They have failed to make a breakthrough on the ground. They have failed to break Ukraine’s economy or the morale of its people. It is very difficult to see Russia achieving success in this war, particularly if Ukraine and its European and global partners continue to resist.I believe Russia is probably weaker than many realize, and it is only a matter of time before they are brought to the table. But they will not be brought there by appeasing them in peace summits.There is precedent around the world for recruiting soldiers from other countries to strengthen one’s armed forces. The Russians have already tested North Korean troops on the battlefield, and they proved that, if needed, tens of thousands more could be deployed. Perhaps this is an approach Ukraine should also consider. In today’s interconnected world, how difficult would it be to bring in tens of thousands of foreign fighters to join the fight against Russia?It is very difficult to coordinate between different countries when it comes to fighting together. At the moment, many countries are involved in training Ukrainian soldiers both across Europe and in Ukraine itself.I think the probability of European ground forces entering Ukraine while the war is still active is very low. But if there is a ceasefire at some point, the likelihood of European forces being deployed in Ukraine is very high. That would require significant coordination in terms of command and control.It would also require agreements between Ukraine and other countries on the mandate and rules governing the use of those forces. There would need to be arrangements for logistics, resupply of foreign forces, and the level of integration between Ukrainian and European troops.All of this is possible, but it requires extensive planning. It is the kind of preparation we should be undertaking now, rather than waiting for a ceasefire to begin that process.Do you have a sense that the world might slip into a Third World War?Unfortunately, I think that in the future, when historians look back at this era, they may see February 2022 as the beginning of a third world war.It is clear that Russia has turned itself into a war economy and a war nation, and it will continue this kind of aggression at least as long as Putin is alive. It is also clear that China has been building up for a confrontation with the United States in the Pacific. It would only take one miscalculation for us to be thrown into a catastrophic World War III.That is why deterrence, whether by stopping Russia in Ukraine and Europe or by deterring China in the Pacific, is so important. It is far cheaper to deter a war than to have to fight one. Unfortunately, many citizens in the West remain unwilling to pay even the cost of deterrence.What if we compare this to the experience of the First World War? At the outset, none of the powers involved believed it would turn into a global bloodbath. Those responsible were reckless, expecting a quick and easy victory. Looking at today’s military build-ups across continents, does the current pace of rearmament suggest that some states may be preparing to pursue a military course of action on a global scale?The simple answer is that they are not yet ready. They are not ready with equipment.They are not yet ready with munitions. And I do not think their societies are ready for the kind of confrontation that may be required to prevent a larger conflict. China and Russia are very good at testing us. They are very good at finding our weaknesses. Unfortunately, for more than a decade, we have stepped back from confronting them.I believe this has encouraged and, in many respects, provoked them. We need to stop doing that. We need to meet steel with steel when it comes to China and Russia, with the goal of preventing something much larger and far more catastrophic from happening.This is not just about the ambitions of Moscow and Beijing or the personal goals of Putin and Xi Jinping. It is about the ability of two very different systems, the general staffs of China and Russia, to coordinate, to transmit orders effectively, and to shape a shared strategic vision. In Europe, such efforts at coordination were pursued quite actively after the Second World War.At present, it is difficult to interpret some of Donald Trump’s statements and behavior. Many European countries are facing challenging times, including the Baltic states, Poland, and possibly Romania. The concern is that within the next year or two, Russia may seek to expand its military presence. In terms of coordination between the general staffs of Russia and China, have you come across any indications of this, naturally nothing classified?There is a lot of evidence that Russia and China are collaborating and sharing information.They are conducting joint exercises, including bomber patrols in the Pacific, and they have just completed yet another joint maritime exercise in the region. This shows a level of cooperation beneath the national leadership that is unprecedented.It is not quite NATO, but it is deeply concerning, as it points to coordinated action between the Asian and European theaters.The role of the Trump administration, which has a presence in both theaters, should be to maintain deterrence against Russia and China. Yet at the moment, the administration seems focused mainly on China in the Pacific, assuming that Europe can look after itself, and viewing the U.S. role more as a broker of transactions. That is not the traditional role of the United States, and it is difficult to understand. It would be better to see the United States play a clearer and more consistent leadership role across both the European and Pacific theaters.Everyone has taken lessons from the Russian-Ukrainian war, especially regarding electronic warfare systems and technologies for tracking enemy actions. I believe Taiwan is also preparing. How serious is the threat of an assault on Taiwan? And if it were to happen, under what conditions might China launch a military intervention?It is a very real threat. Since the 1991 Gulf War, China has been modernizing its military. It has built a significant long-range rocket artillery, long-range ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles that would be critical in any invasion.It has also built up its amphibious capability and airborne assault capability within its ground forces.At the same time, China has developed the ability to strike American or Australian forces that might come to Taiwan’s assistance, with the goal of isolating Taiwan in the event of an invasion. Since the war in Ukraine, I think the Chinese have reviewed their invasion plans. They have learned that the country being invaded also has a say in how events unfold.I suspect they may not have fully accounted for Taiwan’s preparation. For this reason, I believe China has revisited its invasion plans to take into account a Taiwan that could resist in the way Ukraine has resisted Russia.There are frequent suggestions that Donald Trump could be the one to broker peace between Ukraine and Russia, and that Putin may eventually be forced to agree to it. As a general, how do you view the prospects of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and how long do you believe it could continue?Unfortunately, I think this war may continue for some time. President Trump has not come up with a magic formula to end it. Ukraine wants to preserve its sovereignty, maintain the ability to defend itself, and join the European Union. Russia wants none of those things. It wants to subjugate Ukraine, strip away its ability to defend itself, and prevent it from forming alliances with Western countries.These positions are very far apart. Nothing in the current peace process has brought Ukraine and Russia closer together. Ukraine wants peace, but Russia does not. So, unless there is some major surprise, this war is likely to continue for quite some time.