Vladyslav Selezniov, military expert, Ukrainian Navy Reserve Colonel, and former spokesperson for the General Staff, stated this on Espreso TV.He noted that, de facto, the Russian offensive has been ongoing since mid‑October 2023."The Russians dreamed that by August this year they would be able to fully occupy the Donetsk region. But what do we see at the end of August? Only minor tactical advances in isolated sections of the front. Approximately 30% of the Donetsk region — its fortified part — is under our control. The enemy’s dreams of capturing Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka or Kostiantynivka look unrealistic. A powerful network of engineering fortifications allows our forces to effectively hold back the enemy. Yes, the enemy seeks to occupy Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but it is trying to do so not through frontal assaults — because that is impossible — but by cutting logistics arteries (the Pavlohrad–Pokrovsk route, but not only that). How the situation in this sector of the front will develop depends on resource capabilities," Selezniov said.When the leaves fall and the dirt roads turn to mud, the Russians’ advantage will disappearHe added that the Russians have concentrated significant forces near Pokrovsk — about 110,000 personnel — and are transferring additional reserves from northern Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Ukrainian forces have also strengthened this sector of the front. One of the important factors will be the weather."In a month and a half, or perhaps even sooner, autumn rains will begin. That will change the situation at the front. Now the Russians are using the cover of foliage and modified equipment to push into our positions, for example in the direction of Dobropillia. But when the leaves fall and the dirt roads turn to mud, their advantage will disappear. They will not be able to advance on foot with the same effectiveness. However, the factor of drones, missiles and artillery remains, and the enemy is actively using it, trying to destroy our positions," the expert noted.In Vladyslav Selezniov’s view, the Russians’ ambitious plans collapsed for several reasons."First, there are problems with logistics and the organization of offensive operations that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have created. Second, it should be admitted that some of the enemy’s advances were the result of our own mistakes. Western armies have a practice of post‑operation review that helps analyze errors and improve tactics. Unfortunately, that tradition has not yet taken root here, although it could make our units more effective. Overall, the result of the Russian offensive is a combination of their actions and our countermeasures. On maps such as DeepState or in General Staff reports, you can see that the enemy has achieved only minor territorial gains. But they have spent enormous resources doing so. We are already seeing a reduction in the amount of armored equipment on the battlefield and a decrease in the number of infantry groups attacking our positions. After Kherson was liberated by Ukrainian forces, the Russians have captured less than 1% of Ukraine’s territory. So, as we can see, the world’s second army has very limited capabilities," Selezniov said.Despite 700,000 soldiers on the battlefield, the Russians cannot radically change the situationRegarding the situation in other sectors of the front, the military expert noted that the Russians are operating within the task Putin set last spring — to create a "sanitary zone" in the Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv regions."The Russians launched offensives in northern Kharkiv region, in particular towards Vovchansk and Lyptsi, but advanced only 6–8 km and stopped. In the Sumy region the situation is similar — advances of up to 10–12 km, but then they got stuck. Recognizing the lack of prospects, the Russian General Staff is transferring reserves from these directions to Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad and southern Zaporizhia region. On the Kupiansk, Lyman and Siverskyi axes the enemy is trying to form bridgeheads for an attack on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, but those plans have also not been realized. On the Kherson axis the Russians’ chances of crossing the Dnipro are zero — it is technically impossible. Putin does not have the resources to fundamentally change the situation. It is paradoxical, but even with nearly 700,000 personnel engaged on the battlefield, the Russians cannot achieve anything because of the rather effectively structured defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces," Vladyslav Selezniov concluded.