In 2019, another meeting took place but ended early: the sides failed to agree on nuclear disarmament. Trump canceled a joint dinner and left ahead of schedule.Trump’s denuclearization plan collapsed, and today, North Korea is ramping up its nuclear weapons program and fighting alongside Russia against Ukraine - the failure strengthened Kim’s position. Before Trump, no US president had met him, and no leader of a democratic country had even considered it.I recall this geopolitical win for Kim and defeat for Trump on the eve of August 15, 2025, when Putin and Trump are set to meet in Alaska. There, Trump will try to end Russia’s war against Ukraine to cut US spending on our support and reinforce his self-proclaimed image as a peacemaker.Putin, having broken out of the diplomatic isolation imposed after February 24, 2022, will aim to dodge new sanctions and tariffs on his key partners – India and China – whose purchases of Russian oil help finance the killing of Ukrainians.He will signal to fellow dictators that you can invade a sovereign state, kill, rape, loot – not just doghouses but entire cities, and write them into your constitution, and still face no real consequences. Moreover, the US president, leader of a country that once championed democracy, human rights, and the protection of life, will seek a meeting with you.If we sum up the various ceasefire proposals (that's right, because there is no talk of ending the war) already aired or yet to appear in the media, Russia wants Ukraine to give up occupied Crimea and the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and even retreat from unoccupied territories, handing them and their residents over to Russian control.What does Ukraine get in return?Trump’s representative Witkoff – the one who hugged Putin and spread Russian disinformation about the war – talks about a “freeze on the front line.” Meaning Russia would keep the occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kherson regions, while vaguely promising to “negotiate” over them. In practice, Russia would simply pause the fighting until it chooses to restart the war.Meanwhile, Ukraine would get no security guarantees from anyone. We would not join NATO – neither Russia nor Trump wants that.Russia also offers to pass a law promising not to attack Ukraine or the EU. It sounds like a bad joke, especially after the Budapest Memorandum, where Russia guaranteed Ukraine’s security, and after Putin himself, in 2008 following the attack on Georgia, claimed Ukraine would not be next and professed “respect” for our sovereignty and territorial integrity.Both Ukraine and the EU know Putin and Russia can’t be trusted. That’s why, ahead of the US-Russia meeting, Ukraine is aligning its position with the EU and the US, a factor Trump will have to consider.It’s too soon to draw conclusions before the meeting ends. But it’s clear Putin will do whatever it takes to keep the war going, even if it means a temporary pause. And it’s clear Russia will try to destabilize Ukraine from within, widening the gap between civilians and the military, and between those who wrongly think Russia will stop after taking part of our land, and those who know it will only legitimize further territorial expansion.Does Donald Trump understand that with a terrorist like Putin, you don’t negotiate, you put him in his place by force, as should have been done with Kim Jong-un? It seems not. We’ll get the final answer on August 15.Special for EspresoAbout the author. Kateryna Roshuk, Ukrainian political scientist, media managerThe editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.