1. By rejecting Trump’s proposals and ignoring economic factors, Putin has decided to continue the war.2. Russia’s economic situation is such that it has the financial resources to sustain the current intensity of the war for about another year. However, the inevitable decline in oil revenues and the contraction of the economy present Putin with one economic and one military-political dilemma.First, he must make a very difficult decision: in 2026, either increase war spending at the expense of infrastructure and some social programs, or do the opposite. The second dilemma is mass mobilization. We still don’t know which decision he will make. The future course of events depends on that.3. At the same time, we can say with certainty that yesterday marked a Rubicon — after which Putin has no path left but to move toward vassalage under China. Without China, Putin will soon be incapable of much — economically and, to some extent, politically. But he has chosen this path knowingly.4. From now on, the question of peace may depend only on two factors: China or a coup by the elites, which is currently almost impossible to believe in.5. China will start pressuring Russia when it reaches clear final stages in negotiations with the United States. And that won’t happen for at least a few more months.We were very close to a 30-day ceasefire. But it was thwarted by Putin’s toxic ambitions, India’s unwillingness to give up Russia’s windfall oil profits, and the fact that both we and Russia are proxies in the game of great powers.SourceAbout the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.