1. Everything Trump is doing regarding Russia right now is preparation for negotiations with China. Simply put, he’s trying to weaken China’s allies while pushing Beijing to show it’s not willing to support its satellites.2. Washington’s logic was to impose tariffs on Brazil to show that China can’t help its main partner in South America, and pressure India into dropping purchases of Russian oil, thereby delivering a major blow to Russia’s economy.3. As for Brazil, it remains to be seen whether Trump will achieve anything in the coming months. Regarding India, Delhi is holding back — and this pause is working against Ukraine. India is not guided by principles; its actions are driven purely by money and profit. The current model of cooperation with Russia is highly advantageous for India. But the issue goes beyond oil. It also involves the North–South International Transport Corridor, which enables India to cut maritime shipping time to Europe by 8–10 days — reducing costs by about one-third — while avoiding logistical risks associated with Pakistan (and, by extension, China). India’s key partners in this corridor are Iran and Russia. The main participants in the corridor include India, Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and, to a lesser extent, Armenia and Belarus.4. Delhi is now facing not only an oil dilemma, but also a difficult geopolitical choice (incidentally, Russia's main competitor in the northern corridor is Turkey, which would very much like to divert flows from Russia through its territory).It's a pity that no one here thinks in terms of logistical corridors, and instead we live in illusions about whether countries are friendly or not — but that's just me venting about what's been weighing on me.I still believe that after some negotiations, India will accept the U.S. proposal. But it is possible that this could take much longer than Trump would like. Modi is playing a game: stalling for time. Because every day costs tens of millions of dollars.5. The processes set in motion by Trump could eventually force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table with Zelenskyy. However, if India fails to make concessions to Washington in the coming days — and unfortunately, that likelihood appears to be diminishing — we must acknowledge that the chances of successful negotiations in the near term will drop significantly. In that case, the window of opportunity for meaningful talks may not reopen until late 2025 or early 2026.SourceAbout the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.