Several cargo planes with military supplies land there daily. The influx of equipment and ammunition to the Russian base in Gyumri indeed raises many questions and hypotheses.Hypothesis one: Russia is likely seeking to reinforce its 102nd military base in Gyumri to maintain strategic influence in the South Caucasus. This region remains geopolitically important as it lies at the crossroads of interests of Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Western countries. The buildup may be a response to Russia's weakening position in Armenia. Moscow may be increasing its military presence to reassert influence and prevent Armenia from drifting further toward the West.Hypothesis two: The base’s reinforcement could be a response to tense relations with Azerbaijan. It may also serve as a signal to Turkey, which actively supports Azerbaijan and is expanding its regional influence.Hypothesis three: The shipments may be part of preparations for potential regional changes, including possible conflicts or instability in Armenia, Azerbaijan, or Georgia. Experts speculate that Moscow is “preparing for possible shifts in the region.”Hypothesis four: The transfer of military equipment may be part of a strategy to pressure Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government, which in recent years has distanced itself from Moscow. Pashinyan has repeatedly voiced dissatisfaction with Russia’s failure to fulfill arms supply commitments and the lack of support through the CSTO.There is also a hypothesis that Russia could be supporting opposition forces in Armenia to undermine Pashinyan ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections. For instance, Ukrainian intelligence (HUR) claimed that Russia is interfering in Armenia’s internal affairs, including attempts to organize a coup. The equipment transfers might be part of preparations to back pro-Russian forces in the event of a political crisis, though no direct evidence supports this.It is also possible the shipments are part of routine weapons upgrades or equipment rotation at the base, which has existed since 1995 and has its lease extended until 2044.In summary: The supply of military equipment to Gyumri is most likely related to Russia’s efforts to strengthen its position amid geopolitical uncertainty in the South Caucasus. It may be a response to Pashinyan’s pro-Western course, tension with Azerbaijan, or preparation for unpredictable scenarios.The theory of regime change remains unproven and unlikely in the short term, while threats to neighboring countries are limited due to the base’s strategic role as a defensive outpost. Armenian authorities are likely avoiding public comments to prevent escalation with Moscow and to maintain a fragile balance.SourceAbout the author: Ihor Semyvolos, Director of the Center for Middle Eastern StudiesThe editorial team does not always share the views expressed in blog posts.