President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a 25% tariff on India. The American president explained this tariff as a response to unfair economic policies by New Delhi. However, this is not yet the 100% tariff that Trump promised to countries continuing energy cooperation with Russia.When Trump spoke about the new tariff on India, he mentioned that India continues to trade energy resources with Russia and also buys Russian weapons at a time when everyone is interested in stopping Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Thus, the American president warned New Delhi that the existing 25% tariff on Indian goods entering the U.S. could be increased by another 100%. This represents serious pressure on New Delhi.Moreover, it is worth recalling that India’s Energy Minister recently emphasized that if the United States actually imposes sanctions on Russian oil, India is ready to give up that product to avoid damaging relations with the U.S.However, as we understand it, New Delhi was more concerned about a 100% U.S. tariff on India if it continues to buy Russian energy resources. This is not the 125% that India could face if both Trump’s current tariff and a new tariff for Russia’s allies are imposed.It can be said that just one day after Trump shortened his ultimatum to Russian leader Putin from 50 days to 10, he moved to concrete actions, applying direct pressure on Russia’s allies in the energy sector.Of course, China’s position is no less important than India’s. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who previously promised to negotiate with Beijing regarding the purchase of Iranian and Russian oil, now says that representatives of the People’s Republic of China are not willing to discuss the purchase of Russian oil with American negotiators at all, emphasizing that buying Russian energy is a sovereign right of China."We don't want to impede on their sovereignty," said the U.S. Treasury Secretary somewhat sarcastically, "so they'd like to pay a 100% tariff." So now it is quite important to see how New Delhi and Beijing will respond.In my opinion, India is more likely to actually give up purchasing Russian oil. Before the so-called large-scale war between Russia and Ukraine began, Russia did not play a significant role in the Indian oil market at all. Over recent years, the volume of Russian oil supplied to India has literally multiplied. But at the same time, the number of countries from which India buys oil has also increased.Thus, New Delhi can quite easily give up the oil sold by Russian corporations, forgo the profits from buying Russian oil with rupees and selling petroleum products made from that oil for dollars, replace it with other oil, which may not be as cheap but still profitable, and thereby avoid sanctions from both the United States and the European Union.By the way, one of the Indian refineries that has already been sanctioned by the EU for producing petroleum products from Russian oil has begun transitioning to replace Russian products.Dealing with the People’s Republic of China will, of course, be more difficult. It is clear that for China’s leader Xi Jinping, purchasing both Iranian and Russian oil is primarily a political move, not just an economic one. Yes, they might say that Iranian and Russian oil is cheaper for the Chinese economy than any other. However, I have no doubt that Xi Jinping, given the special role China now plays in the Global South, has other options for cheap oil.But it is precisely China’s purchase of Iranian oil that allows the ayatollah regime to continue preparing its nuclear program and thus remain the main destabilizer in the region, the chief opponent of the United States and Israel, and a direct threat to the existence of the Jewish state.If Beijing did not buy Russian oil, I am absolutely certain that Vladimir Putin would not have the means to continue the Russia-Ukraine war for long.At the very least, he would start considering a ceasefire, realizing that the Russian budget would soon run out of money not only to continue military actions but also to maintain the social stability so important for Putin to keep the war going.Then a fairly simple question arises: what should we do as we watch the actions of the American administration? Clearly, if the Americans manage to find truly effective tools against both New Delhi and Beijing, if India stops buying Russian oil, and China at least reduces its imports, then the Russian budget could face serious real problems. And Putin would really have to think about ending the Russian-Ukrainian war.But if we see that China pays no attention to Trump’s warnings, doesn’t even try to hide its continued economic alliance with Russia, and buys Russian oil in even larger volumes, it will mean that Putin may pay no serious attention to Trump’s warnings.On the one hand, Russia is becoming a country far more dependent on Chinese support, and on the other, an integral part of Beijing’s efforts to destabilize the West. In this role, Putin is undoubtedly useful to Xi Jinping, as a proxy force capable of destabilizing both Europe and the Middle East alongside Iran, while also showcasing the United States’ inability to carry out presidential plans to end military conflicts.However, it is unclear to what extent the state of the Chinese economy will allow the head of the People’s Republic of China to openly challenge the American president without facing real and serious consequences for China’s own economy.Therefore, the coming weeks will be quite important, perhaps even decisive, in helping us understand the true capabilities of the United States and the actual response not just from the Kremlin, but from the leadership of India, China, and other countries that still continue to purchase Russian oil.SourceAbout the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, laureate of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.