According to Ukrainian analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko, the latest attack reveals key shifts in Russia’s aerial strategy and deeper signs of pressure inside the Kremlin’s war machine.In the early hours of July 21, Russia launched yet another large-scale, combined aerial attack on Ukraine. The strike, which included kamikaze drones, decoys, and multiple classes of missiles, targeted Kyiv and Ivano-Frankivsk region. But according to Ukrainian military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko, this attack came with several notable — and troubling — new features.The numbers behind the strikeThe overnight barrage involved 426 Shahed-type drones (including decoy variants Geran/Gerbera/Parody), of which 403 were intercepted by Ukrainian defenses. In addition, Russian forces launched:5 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles4 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles (3M14)14 Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles1 Iskander-K ground-launched cruise missileThis volume marks one of the most intense drone-and-missile attacks in recent months. But it’s not just the scale that stood out — it’s the calculated strategy behind it.Systemic terror as a strategyAccording to Kovalenko, the attack is part of Russia’s ongoing “systemic terror campaign,” rooted in the Kremlin’s growing drone manufacturing capacity. Leading up to July 21, Russian forces had reportedly stockpiled around 500 Shahed-type drones. Using 426 in a single operation suggests Russia is operating at or near its production ceiling — deploying inventory as soon as it comes off the line.Kovalenko estimates that Russia is now producing roughly 100 Shahed drones per day, plus an additional 100+ Geran-style decoys, meaning an average of around 200 UAVs daily — enough to maintain continuous pressure on Ukrainian air defenses.By contrast, Russia's cruise missile launches have dropped significantly in recent weeks — a trend Kovalenko attributes to the impact of Operation Spider Web, Ukraine’s campaign to degrade Russian strategic aviation. Wear and tear on launch platforms and supply shortages are also likely factors.Kovalenko believes the system of terror itself has two cores:Drone strikes scale with Russia’s production output.Missile strikes are constrained by platform availability and operational readiness.Complicated flight paths and drone maneuversOne particularly notable change: Russia used much more complex drone flight paths than usual. Kovalenko describes how drones launched from occupied territories flew unusually long and winding routes to reach Kyiv — in some cases taking a 750 km path instead of a direct 500 km trajectory.Instead of flying a straight line north from Kupiansk to Kyiv, drones veered south toward Dnipro, circled near Cherkasy, and approached the capital from the Kaniv–Bohuslav corridor.Why the zigzag? According to Kovalenko, Russian forces may have been trying to scatter Ukrainian air defenses, or may have altered paths mid-flight to avoid electronic warfare and air defense fire.He argues these maneuvers highlight Ukraine’s urgent need for light combat aircraft capable of preemptive drone interception. “Just three or four squadrons of turboprop attack planes stationed along the Dnipro’s left bank could change the scale of these drone threats,” Kovalenko notes. “But instead of accepting this tactical reality, the Ukrainian government has continued to dismiss light aircraft as impractical — a mistake we pay for nearly every night.”Desynchronized missile strikes raise questionsKovalenko was also surprised by what he called a “clear desynchronization” of Russia’s missile attacks.Previously, Russian forces tried to coordinate different types of missiles so they would enter Ukrainian airspace simultaneously — overwhelming air defenses with sheer volume and varied flight profiles. This time, the launches were staggered and erratic:A Kalibr was launched at 2:15 a.m.A Kh-101 followed at 2:20 a.m., but only entered Ukrainian airspace at 3:45 a.m.Kinzhal missiles were launched at 2:56, 3:37, and 5:58 a.m.MiG-31K jets, used as Kinzhal launch platforms, took off at 12:27, 2:52, 3:35, and 5:51 a.m.“Why not launch all five Kinzhals simultaneously?” Kovalenko asks. “Why not synchronize the Kalibr and Kh-101s at least? Previously, Russia was very deliberate about timing, so this deviation is hard to explain.”He cautions against assuming this reflects poor planning. “We’ve seen the Russians execute synchronized strikes before. Something has changed — and we don’t yet know what.”What it meansKovalenko concludes that Russia’s systematic terror campaign is still underway, with strikes typically focusing on a primary city and a secondary region to spread Ukrainian air defense forces thin.The unusual desynchronization seen in this latest attack may reflect internal Russian issues — or could signal a shift in tactics meant to confuse air defense systems. Either way, Kovalenko warns, the only sustainable response is a systematic Ukrainian defense strategy — one that includes both increased interception capabilities and preemptive strike platforms.In his words: “Only by scaling our ability to intercept — not just reactively, but proactively — can we match the systemic nature of this terror.”The July 21 assault, he says, was not just military — it was a clear rebuke of international diplomacy.“With this massive terror act, Russia has effectively spat in the face of Donald Trump’s peace overtures and his proposed 50-day freeze. Moscow not only has no intention of ending its war and terror — it won’t even pause them for appearances’ sake,” – Kovalenko writes.