1. Trump’s main message is about weapons. Let me remind our guppy-brained critics that just two weeks ago, many of you were cursing Trump for the lack of weapons.2. Now, about sanctions. The Graham bill, in its current form, won’t work — because it would require a confrontation with India and China. Trump knows this perfectly well. That’s why he’s not rushing it.Zooming out: why is Trump not in a hurry?The White House understands that Gulf countries are gradually ramping up oil production.Russia, meanwhile, has hit its peak extraction levels — and won’t be able to increase output much further.Washington is waiting for the EU to adopt a price cap mechanism to strike Russia’s energy revenues indirectly, using Europe’s hand.Eliminating Russia completely from the global oil market is impossible. The best-case scenario is to reduce its market share by 15–20% within 6–12 months. That seems to be the path the Trump administration will pursue.3. Does the White House have another plan? I might be wrong, but I don’t think so. And that’s our bigger problem — not the lack of sanctions that wouldn’t work anyway.4. I still believe the real pressure points on Putin lie in U.S.–China and EU–China negotiations. These talks will last at least several more months — another reason Trump isn’t rushing. Especially since the White House believes Russia’s economic decline will accelerate even without Graham’s sanctions (see point 2).5. One more factor to watch closely: Unfortunately, we still don’t know how Lavrov’s visit to Pyongyang ended. That’s the kind of wild card that could sharply complicate the situation.SourceAbout the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.