The fall of Assad: a longtime ally left behindRussia had spent nearly a decade propping up Bashar al-Assad, using military might to shield the Syrian regime from collapse. But in December 2024, when Assad’s government crumbled, Russian forces stayed on the sidelines. Their priority shifted to safeguarding their naval base in Tartus and securing a smooth political transition, rather than defending Assad himself. This hands-off approach cost Russia a key client arms market, disrupted food routes, and weakened its leverage over Turkey.Iran’s isolation in war: a partnership exposedThe 2025 Iran-Israel war further highlighted the limits of Russian loyalty. Despite a strategic partnership with Tehran—and despite Iran’s supply of drones and missiles for Russia’s war in Ukraine—Moscow offered no direct military aid when Iran came under Israeli and U.S. strikes. The Kremlin was quick to denounce the strikes, calling them “irresponsible” and “a flagrant violation of international law.” President Vladimir Putin described the attacks as “unprovoked” and “unjustified,” while Russia’s Foreign Ministry reaffirmed support for Iran’s right to pursue peaceful nuclear energy and rejected Western accusations that Tehran is seeking nuclear weapons.Despite this strong rhetoric, Moscow’s response has remained limited. This comes just months after Russia and Iran signed a 20-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement in January 2025, aimed at boosting political, economic, and military ties. Notably, the pact stopped short of including any mutual defense provisions, leaving Russia with no formal obligation to provide military support to Iran.This reinforced the perception that Russia will abandon partners when it suits its interests.Strategic retreat: prioritizing Ukraine and self-preservationThese twin episodes illustrate Russia’s broader shift. Stretched thin by the war in Ukraine, Moscow appears unwilling or unable to engage in costly foreign entanglements. This realignment leaves former allies like Syria and Iran exposed, while Russia focuses on preserving its military capacity and protecting core assets.Diminished global clout and fragile alliancesRussia’s reliability as a security guarantor is now in doubt. Middle Eastern states and other regional players, such as Armenia, are reassessing their ties to Moscow.Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s efforts to retain influence through transactional diplomacy with states like Oman and Algeria seem unlikely to offset the damage. The idea of Russia as a global counterweight to the West is eroding, replaced by a more pragmatic, self-interested approach.