The European Union looks set to sharpen its visa suspension mechanism later this year, making it easier for Brussels to revoke visa-free travel for citizens of the 61 countries that currently enjoy it – including all the EU hopefuls in the Western Balkans, as well as Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.

The proposal to list more reasons for suspending visa-free travel was initiated by the European Commission back in 2023, and the Council of the EU – which represents the 27 member states – already adopted its position on the matter a year ago. However, due to the European Parliamentary elections in June 2024 and a heavy backlog of legislation, the European Parliament only recently obtained its negotiation mandate.

Last week, the first trialogue between the three institutions took place on the proposed legislation, with the goal of reaching an agreement during the Polish Presidency of the EU Council, which runs until the end of June. If all goes well, the new legislation should be up and running in early autumn.

Why Is This Happening Now?

Essentially, the bloc is becoming much more hard-nosed about visa liberalization, reflecting a broader shift: first, to combat any form of illegal migration into the EU; and second, to potentially use visa policy as a political tool to pressure third countries.

Visa liberalization – which in this case includes all EU member states except Ireland, as well as non-EU countries Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland – has long been one of Brussels' most significant political carrots, particularly for countries in its neighborhood.

It allows nationals from third countries to visit the EU for up to 90 days in any 180-day period without a visa. Kosovo was included on the list in early 2024 and Georgia and Ukraine in 2017 – moves that were celebrated in all these countries.

To threaten to withdraw the privilege can therefore be seen as a real stick.

The current suspension mechanism, in place since 2018, can be triggered in cases of clear abuse – for example, a surge in third-country nationals overstaying the 90-day limit or using the liberalization of travel to seek asylum in the EU. So far, the bloc has only suspended visa liberalization once: first temporarily, then permanently, for the South Pacific nation of Vanuatu.

So, what changes are likely in store? Broadly speaking, there are four key areas of change, as Brussels aims to make the visa suspension mechanism a more credible deterrent. First, visa liberalization could be suspended if there is a perceived lack of alignment between a visa-free third country and the EU's general visa policy.

This was the case in 2022, for example, when Serbia allowed visa-free travel for citizens of countries such as Burundi, India, and Cuba. Brussels suggested that many of those individuals were using Serbia as a backdoor into the EU. After pressure from the European Commission, Belgrade dropped some of these arrangements. Under the proposed legislation, however, such behavior could be punished more readily.

Hybrid Threats

Another reason for suspending visas is so-called hybrid threats. While still rather theoretical, this provision is inspired by cases such as Russia and Belarus, which the EU has accused of transporting migrants from Africa and Asia to EU frontiers, like Poland and Lithuania's borders.

Now, the EU's visa facilitation agreements with both Moscow and Minsk have already been suspended for several years, due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Belarusian strongman Aleksandr Lukashenko's crackdown on the opposition. However, if another visa-free country attempts a similar tactic, the new mechanism could be triggered in response.

Thirdly, if a country operates an investor citizenship scheme – allowing individuals to buy citizenship without any genuine link to that country – then visa liberalization with the EU could also be halted in the future.

However, the fourth new ground for suspension is perhaps the most interesting one, as it relates to the EU's political relations with third countries. The draft legislation states that the suspension mechanism can be triggered in cases of «serious human rights violations and abuses» or «serious breaches of international law and standards, including human rights law and noncompliance with international court decisions and rulings».

«Democracy Criterion»

If you ask EU officials, their reading has always been that a «democracy criterion» exists when it comes to visa liberalization – but it has never been clearly spelled out what exactly this entails.

Another interesting and new aspect is that triggering the mechanism in this case should be the exclusive prerogative of the European Commission, after consultation with EU member states, as it deals with the external relations of the bloc.

Ultimately, however, it would still be up to the member states – via a qualified majority – to suspend visa liberalization with a third country. As EU officials put it, this remains «the nuclear option when all others have been exhausted», since the bloc is generally reluctant to penalize a country's entire population rather than its government.

That's why, earlier this year, the EU chose to suspend visa liberalization for Georgian diplomatic passport holders only, following democratic backsliding in the Caucasus country. Still, the option of targeting the entire population remains on the table – and with the future expanded scope of the suspension mechanism, the bloc is clearly sharpening its toolbox.

Rikard Jozwiak