The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that the Kremlin has not prepared the Russian information space for the signing of a peace deal or the end of the war with Ukraine as Moscow has increased calls to prolong the war until the Russians achieve their goals.

Source: ISW

Quote: "The Kremlin has not been preparing the Russian information space for a peace agreement in the near future and that Russian forces and society do not anticipate an imminent end to the war.

The Kremlin has been engaged in a concerted effort to justify Putin's war aims as existential to the Russian state and to garner societal support for the protraction of the war until Russia achieves these goals. Kremlin officials are increasingly publicly stating that Russia is prepared to continue fighting until Ukraine accepts Russia's demands, likely because the Kremlin assesses that it has adequately prepared Russian society and the Russian military for such a scenario… 

Ukraine continues to demonstrate its willingness to establish meaningful peace dialogues and commit to an unconditional ceasefire. Russia, however, continues to demonstrate that it is not interested in a ceasefire or in good faith negotiations to end the war."

Details: The Kremlin is persisting in its attempts to showcase Russia's military strength ahead of the scheduled phone conversation between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin on 19 May.

On 18 May, a Kremlin-affiliated journalist published excerpts from what was described as a "new" interview with Putin. In it, Putin asserted that Russia has sufficient personnel and equipment to bring the war in Ukraine to its so-called "logical" end, achieving outcomes deemed "necessary" for Russia.

Putin echoed familiar Kremlin rhetoric, insisting that any peace talks must address the "root causes" of the war and guarantee the "protection" of Russian-speaking Ukrainians, whom he claimed view Russia as their "motherland".

The excerpts appear to be previously unaired material from the Kremlin-produced documentary Russia.Kremlin.Putin.25 Years, released on 4 May, in which Putin repeatedly emphasised Russia's supposed capacity to to bring the war to its "logical conclusion".

The fact that the Kremlin decided to publish these clips on 18 May suggests a deliberate Kremlin effort to present an image of military strength, both to Western nations and to its domestic audience, in advance of Putin's upcoming call with Trump.

The ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are suffering heavy battlefield casualties at rates that may not be sustainable over the medium or long term. In addition, the Russian economy appears to be under severe strain due to mismanagement and the financial burden of war – marked by rising inflation, acute labour shortages and a decline in the sovereign wealth fund: "The continued depletion of Russian materiel, personnel, and economic resources at the current rate will likely present Putin with difficult decision points in 2026 or 2027".

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