Trump's tariffs. The World Trade Organization has issued a worrying forecast for the economy
news.online.ua
Wed, 16 Apr 2025 21:04:00 +0300
The WTO has issued a worrying forecast for the global economy The outlook for global trade has deteriorated sharply due to sharp tariff increases and trade policy uncertainty, the WTO report says.
The WTO, taking into account currently applicable customs tariffs and a 90day pause, expects trade in goods to fall by 0.2 this year, in contrast to the growth in the October forecast.The decline is expected to be particularly sharp in North America, where exports are expected to decline by 12.6 this year.The WTO also warned of serious downside risks, including the application of reciprocal tariffs and the wider effects of political uncertainty, which could lead to an even sharper decline in world merchandise trade of 1.5, hitting exportoriented, least developed countries particularly hard.According to the WTO, the tariff changes came after a strong year for global trade in 2024, during which trade in goods grew by 2.9 and trade in commercial services increased by 6.8.
If reciprocal tariffs are put in place, global merchandise trade growth would decline by a further 0.6 percentage points, posing particular risks for least developed countries, while the spread of trade policy uncertainty would reduce growth by a further 0.8 percentage points.
Taken together, reciprocal tariffs and widespread trade policy uncertainty will lead to a 1.5 reduction in global merchandise trade in 2025.
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