Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have reported that the Russian military is experimenting with and adapting its tactics for launching Shahed-type loitering munitions in Ukraine, aiming to exhaust and overwhelm Ukrainian air defences.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Russian forces have resumed a more typical strike pattern in late March and early April 2025 after a temporary spike in the size of Russian long-range strike packages in mid-February and early March 2025."

Details: Russian forces carried out significantly more strikes in mid-February and early March 2025. However, in recent weeks, the pattern has returned to that observed in January and early February 2025, albeit with fewer missiles.

No strikes were recorded in Ukraine on 7 April – the day after Russia launched its largest attack in over a month on 6 April – but daily strikes have since resumed.

Russian officials have so far declined to entertain or have flatly dismissed the proposed temporary ceasefire between the US and Ukraine, which was reportedly put forward by US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff during a 13 March meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The proposed halt to long-range strikes on energy facilities would not oblige Russia to suspend all drone and missile attacks. However, the broader ceasefire proposal — encompassing the current front line, as well as air and sea — would likely necessitate a complete cessation of Russian strikes against Ukraine.

Quote: "Russian forces are likely delaying negotiations on a general ceasefire in order to continue making gains along the front line in Ukraine and continue devastating long-range strikes against Ukrainian defence industrial and civilian areas in order to intimidate civilians and undermine Ukraine's ability to defend itself against future Russian aggression."

Infographic: ISW

Details: In recent weeks, Russian forces have reportedly modified their long-range strike tactics, likely aiming to replicate the intensity of earlier strike packages to maximise damage and sow fear among the Ukrainian population.

Ukrainian sources and the German newspaper BILD reported in late March and early April 2025 that Russian forces have begun deploying long-range drones at high altitudes, several kilometres away from major Ukrainian cities and strategic targets, before launching coordinated strikes involving multiple drones simultaneously.

Ukrainian sources noted that Russian forces are also using Shahed drones in tightly packed formations in an effort to overwhelm and destroy Ukrainian air defence systems. It has been observed that they are amassing groups of 10 to 15 Shahed drones outside urban areas before initiating strikes.

On 6 April, Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yurii Ihnat noted that Russian forces are continuously upgrading their Shahed drones, ballistic missiles and overall strike tactics, significantly complicating Ukrainian efforts to intercept and destroy them.

Quote: "Russian forces previously launched Shahed long-range drones in a series of waves against various targets each night, and this reported effort to operate drones in denser formations suggests that Russian forces believe this new tactic will overwhelm Ukrainian air defences more effectively."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 12 April:

• US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg expressed support on 11 April for the deployment of an allied "reassurance force" in the rear areas of western Ukraine after a possible future ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.
• Russian state-owned and pro-Kremlin media amplified a Russian official's blanket rejection of any peacekeeping force in Ukraine on 12 April.
• Russian forces have resumed a more typical strike pattern in late March and early April 2025 after a temporary spike in the size of Russian long-range strike packages in mid-February and early March 2025.
• People's Republic of China (PRC) military officials reportedly visited the front line in Ukraine to glean insights for future warfare amid reports that at least 155 Chinese nationals are fighting in Ukraine.
• Ukraine’s European partners announced additional military aid packages within the context of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (the Ramstein format) meeting on 11 April.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kurakhove, and Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.

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