US intelligence: Ukraine and Russia believe flawed truce is worse than war continuation, says Bloomberg
www.pravda.com.ua
Tue, 25 Mar 2025 18:13:13 +0200
An assessment by the US Director of National Intelligence has stated that although Ukraine and Russia have shown a willingness to agree to a partial ceasefire, the leaders of both countries perceive the risks of a prolonged war as lower than those of an unsatisfactory peace settlement.
Source Bloomberg, as reported by European Pravda Details This intelligence assessment was presented on Tuesday 25 March during the Senate Intelligence Committees hearing on the annual Worldwide Threat report, during which senior US intelligence officials testified.
According to the assessment, although Kyiv and Moscow have demonstrated a willingness to test a partial ceasefire, leaders for now probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement.
Officials from the Trump administration are aiming for a ceasefire by 20 April, but Ukrainian and European officials see this as excessively ambitious, noting Russian President Vladimir Putins efforts to delay the negotiations.
The assessment suggests that for Putin, positive battlefield trends allow for some strategic patience, and for Ukraine, conceding territory or neutrality to Russia without substantial security guarantees from the West could prompt domestic backlash and future insecurity.
Nevertheless, both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seem to recognise the risks of a prolonged war.
The assessment highlights that a drawnout war could damage the Russian economy and lead to undesired escalation with the West.
Meanwhile, for Ukraine, the future of Western aid remains uncertain.
Moscow continues to gain ground on the battlefield, with the assessment emphasising that a war of attrition favours Russias military strength.
It warns that this strategy will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyivs position on the battlefield, regardless of any US or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow.
US intelligence also continues to see a risk that Putin could resort to nuclear weapons.
Russias inability to achieve quick and decisive battlefield wins, coupled with Ukrainian strikes within Russia, continues to drive concerns that Putin might use nuclear weapons, the assessment notes.
Background After discussions in Saudi Arabia on 25 March, the delegations from the United States, Ukraine and Russia reached an agreement to work towards a truce in the Black Sea and a ban on strikes targeting energy infrastructure.
However, Ukraines Defence Minister Rustem Umierov noted that further technical consultations are required to put these agreements into action.
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