Cutting off US aid will bring Russia's victory in war against Ukraine closer – ISW
www.pravda.com.ua
Sun, 02 Mar 2025 03:36:38 +0200
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War ISW have warned that a halt in US aid to Ukraine would significantly boost Russias chances of winning the war.
This could result in heightened Russian aggression, territorial gains for Moscow and further destabilisation of the region.
Source ISW Details In an assessment, ISW argues that halting or delaying US aid to Ukraine could be a decisive factor in shifting the balance of power towards Russia.
Analysts stress that Western support is crucial for Ukraine to effectively resist Russian aggression.
Ukrainian forces are actively using USsupplied systems, including Patriot air defence systems and HIMARS and ATACMS longrange missile systems, to counter missile attacks, disrupt Russian supply lines, and weaken Russias defence and industrial capacity.
ISW has repeatedly noted the importance of the timely continuation of Western military aid to Ukraine, noting a correlation between delays or cuts in support and the scale of Russian advances.
Quote Russia would leverage the cessation of US aid to Ukraine to seize more territory in Ukraine and attempt to exhaust European support the approach Putin has outlined in his theory of victory.
Ending US aid to Ukraine and enabling further Russian gains would also embolden Putin and strengthen his belief that Russia can seize and control Ukraine and other former Soviet countries, including current NATO member states.
The Kremlin will likely intensify its military campaign in Ukraine and attempt to exploit any delay or cessation of US military assistance to Ukraine as the Kremlin did in Spring 2024.
Details ISW stresses that the primary obstacle to ending the war is Putin, not Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Quote Zelenskyy has continuously reiterated his commitment to obtaining a just and lasting peace in Ukraine through negotiations.
Zelenskyy has indicated several times including in his 28 February Fox News interview that he is willing to make concessions on territory, Ukraines NATO membership, and even his own tenure in office to secure a just and sustainable peace.
Putin and other senior Kremlin officials have by contrast continuously reiterated their commitment to Putins initial war aims in Ukraine, which amount to Ukraines full capitulation, replacing the current Ukrainian government with a proRussian puppet government, and Ukrainian commitments to neutrality and demilitarisation all of which would leave Ukraine nearly helpless against future Russian aggression and destabilisation efforts.
To quote the ISWs Key Takeaways on 1 March Senior US officials are suggesting that the United States may cut all aid to Ukraine, although US President Donald Trump has not indicated any such intention.
Cutting the current flow of aid to Ukraine would directly undermine President Trumps stated goal of achieving a sustainable peace in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces enabled by essential US assistance are inflicting unsustainable losses on Russian forces while holding them to marginal gains.
This situation, combined with the severe challenges Russia will face in 2025, offers the US great leverage in peace negotiations.
A suspension of ongoing US military assistance to Ukraine would encourage Russian leader Vladimir Putin to continue to increase his demands and fuel his conviction that he can achieve total victory through war.
Curtailing aid to Ukraine would risk diminishing US influence in the world and emboldening US adversaries.
Putin, not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, remains the main obstacle to a lasting peace agreement on Ukraine.
The Kremlin launched another informational effort intended to discourage additional US and European military assistance to Ukraine by claiming that Russia has won the war in Ukraine.
European countries remain committed to supporting the Ukrainian military and defence industry, however, amid preparations for a European defence summit about Ukraine on 2 March.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Russian forces recently advanced near Velyka Novosilka.
The Russian Ministry of Defence MoD continues to recruit medically unfit soldiers in an effort to address personnel shortages.
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