Europe may have as little as three to five years to prepare for a potential Russian attack – it must get real about borrowing to protect peace

EU leaders agreed at their summit with Keir Starmer in Brussels this week that much more spending is urgently needed to support Ukraine and to strengthen Europe’s own defences. But they have yet to get real about how to fund it, how to spend it, or how to staff it.

Nearly three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine upended European security, an immediate and sustained surge in defence investment is needed to rearm Kyiv and protect the continent from Russian aggression and Chinese assertiveness. Some military commanders and intelligence services have said Europe may have as little as three to five years to prepare for a potential Russian attack on a Nato country. Others see a longer timeline of perhaps eight years as a result of Moscow’s heavy casualties in Ukraine. But given the way that Vladimir Putin has hardened his revisionist ideology, built a war economy and forged strategic partnerships with China, Iran and North Korea, the risk of confrontation is clearly rising unless he can be pushed back in Ukraine.

Paul Taylor is a senior visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre