Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point out that despite the Russian advance in Ukraine, its pace has slowed, while Russian losses remain high.

Source:ISW

Details: Russian troops continued to suffer heavy losses in January 2025 despite a slower pace of advance compared to previous months at the end of 2024.

Ukraine's Ministry of Defence reported on 3 February that Russian troops suffered 48,240 casualties in January 2025. These are more than three Russian motorised rifle divisions, making January the second-highest month for casualties since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

ISW's geolocation data shows that Russian forces advanced 498 sq km in Ukraine and Russia’s Kursk Oblast in January, or approximately 16.1 sq km per day.

Available data suggests that Russian forces suffered approximately 96 casualties per square kilometre of territory gained.

Ukraine's Ministry of Defence reported that Russian troops suffered 48,670 casualties in December 2024, the highest monthly casualty rate since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and ISW estimates that Russian forces gained a total of 593 sq km in December 2024.

Quote: "The roughly 100-square-kilometer decrease in seized territory between December 2024 and January 2025, coupled with a similar monthly casualty rate, indicates that Russian forces are taking the same high level of losses despite achieving fewer territorial advances in the near term."

Details: Earlier, ISW noted that the advance of Russian troops slowed down from November 2024 to December 2024.

Quote: "ISW previously assessed that the Russian military command likely tolerated record levels of personnel casualties from September 2024 through November 2024 to facilitate larger territorial gains, but it remains unclear whether the Russian military command will be willing to sustain such casualties if Russian forces' rate of advance continues to decline as Russian forces are advancing on more heavily defended settlements such as Pokrovsk."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 3 February:

• Russian forces continued to suffer high losses in January 2025 despite a slower rate of advance as compared with previous months in late 2024.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against Russian oil and gas infrastructure in Volgograd and Astrakhan oblasts on the night of 2-3 February.
• Ukrainian forces continue to innovate with drone operations to maintain their technological advantage over Russia and bring about battlefield effects.
• The United Nations (UN) Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) expressed concern about the "sharp rise" in reports of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
• Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on 3 February that Ukraine has started implementing organisational reforms to transition the Ukrainian Armed Forces into a "corps structure".
• Unspecified actors assassinated Armen Sarkisian, the founder of the "Arbat" Special Purpose Battalion, who has been involved in Russia's hybrid activities and invasions of Ukraine since 2014.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Borova, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and on the Dnipro front.
• The Russian government is expanding the federal "Time of Heroes" programme, which aims to install Kremlin-selected veterans into government positions, to occupied Ukraine as part of long-term efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia.

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