Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has said in an interview on Russian state-run TV channels that Russia is unlikely to take part in peace talks in the near future.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: On 24 January, during Putin’s interview with Kremlin propagandist Pavel Zarubin, the main focus of Putin's speech was to make it clear to Russian society that the war will continue. He stressed that Russia is unlikely to engage in peace talks in the near future and that the war in Ukraine is part of a broader conflict between Russia and the West.

Quote: "Putin is likely using his interview with Zarubin on Russian state television to signal to Russian society that Russia is unlikely to participate in peace negotiations in the near future and that the war is unlikely to end soon."

More details: Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that with this interview, Putin also sought to influence Russian elites who want the war to end. His message should convince them that there would be no shortcuts to peace.

This statement once again demonstrates Putin's unwavering position, which promotes the narrative that Ukraine is a puppet of the West and that the conflict is part of a global confrontation between the great powers. In addition, Putin believes that negotiations on the war can only be reached between the US and Russia, without Ukraine's direct involvement.

Putin also once again questioned Zelenskyy's legitimacy as Ukraine's current president.

During the interview, Putin sought to position himself as an equal to Donald Trump, reinforcing his long-held belief that Russia is a great power successor to the Soviet Union.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 24 January:

• Russian ruler Vladimir Putin is once again attempting to obfuscate his unwillingness to participate in good-faith negotiations to end the war by blaming Ukraine for defending itself against Russia's invasion and illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory.
• Zelenskyy signed the decree in September 2022 banning negotiations with Putin in direct response to Putin's illegal annexation of four regions in Ukraine’s east and south and after months of negotiations in which Russia continued to demand Ukraine's full capitulation.
• However, Zelenskyy has consistently signaled his willingness to negotiate with Russia and make certain compromises in pursuit of peace following the 2022 decree banning formal negotiations with Putin.
• Putin meanwhile continues to signal to both his domestic and global audiences that he is not interested in peace short of his full demands and remains committed to Ukraine's complete capitulation.
• Putin is attempting to leverage the 2022 decree as a strawman to hide the reality of his disinterest in negotiations and to sow discord between Ukraine and its Western allies.
• Putin also attempted to position himself as Trump’s equal during his interview, reinforcing his long-held belief that Russia is the great-power heir to the Soviet Union.
• Putin demonstrated that he is worried about the effect that lower oil prices would have on his domestic stability and ability to wage his war in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin is attempting to revive its information operation aimed at deterring the US and other Western states from providing further military assistance to Ukraine.
• The Kremlin is framing the new 2025 Union State Security Concept as completely superseding the original 1999 Security Concept, indicating that this new agreement may be more expansive than the original and will further forward the Kremlin's effort to annex Belarus.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a large series of drone strikes against Russian defense industrial enterprises and oil refineries on the night of 23-24 January as part of an ongoing strike series aimed at degrading Russian military capacity.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Ukrainian forces recently recaptured lost positions near Toretsk.

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