Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the intensification of the Ukrainian defence forces' offensive in Kursk Oblast may indicate a new stage in the Ukrainian defence operation in Kursk, but ISW is not ready to make any predictions.

Source: ISW

Quote:"Ukrainian forces recently made tactical advances amid continued intensified offensive operations in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on 6 January. Geolocated footage published on 5 and 6 January indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in southern Berdin, central Russkoye Porechnoye and central Novosotnitsky (all northeast of Sudzha)."

Details:  The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) and Russian milbloggers claimed on 6 January that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian platoon-sized mechanised assault near Berdin and that Russian forces, including elements of Rosgvardia's "Talib" Group, repelled Ukrainian attacks near Novosotnitsky.

Quote:"Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the Russian 30th Motorised Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorised Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps, Leningrad Military District), 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff's Main Directorate), 11th Airborne Brigade and Akhmat Spetsnaz units cleared areas near Berdin and Novosotnitsky."

One Russian millogger described recent Ukrainian attacks in Kursk Oblast as enhanced reconnaissance-in-force operations that could act as a diversionary effort for unspecified future operations.

Quote:"Increased Ukrainian offensive operations in Kursk Oblast may be the beginning stages of a concerted Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere in the theater, though ISW is unprepared to offer any specific forecast."

The assessment adds that Russian forces attempted to use Ukrainian attacks northeast of Suzha to launch offensives elsewhere in the areas of Ukrainian advance in Kursk Oblast on 6 January.

However, ISW has not found confirmation of these claims.

At the same time, analysts suggest that Ukrainian forces may also be continuing long-range strikes on Russian rear areas in Kursk Oblast as part of an effort to utilise integrated strike capabilities to support ground operations. 

Meanwhile, ISW cannot independently verify whether Ukrainian forces successfully targeted the base.

Quote: "ISW previously assessed that Ukrainian forces may be attempting to integrate longer-range precision strike capabilities and electronic warfare (EW) systems activity to support ground operations."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 6 January:

• Ukrainian forces recently made tactical advances amid intensified offensive operations in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on 6 January.
• Russian forces attempted to exploit Ukrainian attacks northeast of Sudzha to launch operations elsewhere in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on 6 January.
• Ukrainian forces may be continuing to conduct long-range strikes against Russian rear areas in Kursk Oblast as part of efforts to utilise integrated strike capabilities to support ground operations.
• Russian forces reportedly executed more Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on 3 January.
• Ukrainian Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets announced that Ukraine and Russia have reached a preliminary agreement to conduct regular POW exchanges in 2025.
• The leaders of the Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz forces and the far-right paramilitary unit Rusich Russian Sabotage Assault Reconnaissance Group met on 6 January and promoted a message emphasising Russia's ethnic diversity and harmony.
• Russian forces advanced on the Lyman, Toretsk and Pokrovsk fronts, and the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that Russian forces had seized Kurakhove.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in an interview published on 5 January that 3,800 North Korean personnel have been killed or wounded in Kursk Oblast.

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