The lesson of his first term is that he does what he says he is going to do: the UK must prepare

Wednesday 9 November 2016: a misty, drizzly day in Washington DC, an overwhelmingly Democrat city in trauma after the shock victory of Donald Trump in the election the previous day. A Washington rarity, a declared Trump supporter, was among a group of guests for lunch in the residence that day. I took him aside and asked whether Trump would be as radical and disruptive as the giants of American political journalism were predicting. “Not at all,” he said: “I know the guy. All that red meat was just for the campaign. I expect him to govern as a mainstream Republican.”

Fast forward to London, Wednesday 6 November 2024. I’m speaking at a business dinner about the election outcome and what will come next. I mention Trump’s commitment to levy 20% tariffs on all imports into America. One participant says he has just spoken to a friend in Arizona who knows Trump personally. This friend has said: “It’s not about instant action. Trump will use the tariffs as a threat, to persuade countries to act to get trade flows into balance.” Another participant says: “Trump has won his second term now. So he doesn’t need to fight any more. Surely he’ll calm down and focus on his legacy?”