Putin will not stop unless he is forced to. It’s time to change the way we think about nuclear deterrence, and commit to securing victory

The western strategy towards supporting Ukraine is dominated by concerns about potential nuclear escalation and the possibility that Russia’s invasion could trigger a third world war. It is clear that no democratic state, including Ukraine, wants to see such an outcome. However, over-cautious preventive measures that allow Russia to prevail in its aggression could themselves become escalatory. Excessive apprehension may inadvertently provoke the very outcome the west seeks to avoid.

A current topic of global discussion is whether President Joe Biden will approve Ukrainian strikes on military targets within Russian territory using US-supplied weapons. The UK government is waiting for Washington’s decision before taking further action. Yet the length of this debate points to a deeper issue: the absence of a unified strategy between Ukraine and its allies for achieving victory and ending the war. The western coalition, led by the US, continues to prioritise avoiding escalation, even if this slows down Ukraine’s defence efforts.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk is a former Ukrainian defence minister and chair of thinktank the Centre for Defense Strategies in Kyiv