It seems Putin did not expect there would be progress in the Ukrainian-American negotiations. Now his behavior can be interpreted, first and foremost, as a desire to jump off the agreements with Trump or, more precisely, as another attempt to raise the stakes in order to drag out the negotiations.Let's try to look more broadly at Putin's logic, and then at his further actions.Root causes of the warOn February 24, 2022, the war did not begin because Putin wanted to capture Ukraine. This, from his point of view, was a mandatory prize in a more global game. Back then, the main goal of the war came down to three things:become the third pole of the world;gain unlimited police control over the post-Soviet space;stop the Slavicization of Russia thanks to 30 million Ukrainians.None of these points is achievable for Putin, no matter how the war ends. This is perfectly understood in the Kremlin, and therefore the root causes of the war in 2025 have somewhat transformed.New root causes of the warAt the end of 2025, the 'root causes' seem to be:return to the world agenda through the lifting of sanctions and partial return to certain markets;prevent political dependence on China in the next 10 years through diversification of Russia's economic and geopolitical capabilities in the context of the confrontation between the U.S. and China;try to raise the stakes by becoming a locomotive in weakening the EU (Russians proceed from the idea that this is a unifying idea for China and the U.S., and the EU has no agency in this model);change the government in Ukraine to one more loyal to itself."Here we have Putin's key dilemma: the first two issues clearly indicate: the war needs to be ended now. The third issue tempts to continue the war. And the question of Ukraine has two answer options."The Ukrainian dilemmaOn the question of Ukraine, Putin cannot answer one question: is his goal to try to destroy Ukraine with all the corresponding economic and demographic losses for Russia, or to try to change the Ukrainian government in 1-2 electoral cycles.And here are the cards on the table:Putin does not want to wait any longer;Putin fears internal opposition if he does not resolve the 'Ukrainian question' now;Putin believes that the Russian economy has reserves until at least mid-2027, and during this time Ukraine will crumble (10 months ago, he also believed in a summer offensive, by the way);right now there is no answer to the question of what will happen if Trump is sent away now.U.S. statements about strengthening control over the shadow fleet and Russian attempts to transfer part of this fleet under the Russian flag and under the protection of the Russian military — this is a road to nowhere. It will only lead to increased losses for the Russian budget.But at the same time, Putin understands: there are about 18 months until the beginning of serious structural problems in the economy.Therefore, right now he will definitely drag out time. He will not go for a quick peace without a real threat from the U.S.So let's exhale. Although, of course, no one has canceled Christmas miracles. But after Christmas, everyone expects miracles at Easter too.SourceAbout the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.