Berlin round of peace talks
global.espreso.tv
Wed, 17 Dec 2025 21:00:00 +0200

Undoubtedly, the Berlin meetings strengthened Ukraine's negotiating positions — this is also good news.At the same time, the leaders' statement contains five critically important gaps that cannot be left unaddressed:the absence of a clear mention of restoring territorial integrity as a mandatory foundation for peace;an attempt to establish, in violation of our sovereignty, external interference in determining the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which must remain Ukraine's exclusive right;the absence of points about Russia's international responsibility for war crimes and crimes against peace;uncertainty regarding the model of international peacekeeping presence;the absence of a list of requirements for Russia's steps to achieve peace, such as ceasefire, cessation of attacks on critical infrastructure, withdrawal of troops, creation of demilitarized zones, release of prisoners of war and civilian hostages, etc.We must remember that progress in achieving peace depends not only on the ability of Ukraine, Europe, and the U.S. to reach a common vision regarding the conditions for ending the war."Real progress will consist in forcing the aggressor to agree to a ceasefire and a peace plan. And this requires not only familiarizing the Kremlin with the Berlin developments of the allies, but increasing pressure on the aggressor to accept these conditions."As long as the Kremlin believes it retains strategic initiative and can force Ukraine to capitulate, its interest in compromise is minimal. Therefore, the West's main task is to change the strategic balance, forcing Moscow to perceive negotiations not as an instrument for implementing its demands, but as the only way to avoid defeat.In these complex negotiations, it is inadvisable to say that supposedly 90 percent of the agreement is already completed. In negotiations with Moscow, a single principle applies: "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed." Putin's demands on Ukraine, on the U.S., on Europe have not changed since the end of 2021.Negotiations and war will continue until either the West forces the Kremlin to agree to a just peace, or the West abandons its own principles. There is no third option.If the West does not plan to capitulate, then the only way is pressure.In the near future, this is pressure through:a tough ultimatum to Putin from Trump and the White House's readiness for decisive sanctions measures against the Russian economy and military machine;new packages of military aid to Ukraine from the U.S. and Europe, including long-range Tomahawk and Taurus missiles;a strong and ambitious 20th EU sanctions package against Russia, as well as strengthening sanctions against Russia's allies;approval of a political decision by the European Council on December 18-19 regarding providing Ukraine with a "reparations loan" at the expense of frozen Russian assets.Moving along the track of the peace process, we must strengthen Ukrainian capabilities to conduct an effective struggle against the aggressor — military, economic, and democratic resilience.Ukraine is doomed to long-term confrontation and struggle with Russia for its own existence as an independent sovereign state.And in this struggle, two elements are important: strong Ukraine's Armed Forces and security guarantees from our partners.Security guarantees must be legally binding and provide for a guarantee of the use of force in case of new aggression. Only NATO Article 5 ensures such effectiveness."Any "quasi-guarantees" built on political promises do not align with the position of the current US administration and do not create real deterrence."If Ukraine is to consider peace agreements, then first we must see: a consolidated position of the U.S. Congress, signed legally binding guarantees, clearly defined mechanisms and methods of response in case of aggression. Only after this is it possible to bring the agreement to public discussion.European security guarantees in the sky and at sea are also unlikely to be effective without an American component. NATO's position on intercepting Russian drones over its airspace is indicative: avoiding escalation is placed above active deterrence. Should it be understood that Europeans guarantee shooting down Russian missiles and drones attacking Ukraine with their own air assets?Therefore, it is important that future security guarantees be realistic, not declarative."We support the president in negotiations on ending the war on terms that are just for Ukraine, but the president has no mandate for concessions that contradict the Constitution of Ukraine and the will of the Ukrainian people."Any decisions regarding peace can be based only on legitimate procedures. No decisions made under pressure or post factum. Elections and referendums are possible only under conditions of compliance with international democratic standards, without manipulations and without an imposed framework. To agree in the corridors about Ukraine's fate, and then present the people with a fait accompli and a manipulative choice in a referendum — this is unacceptable.Any elections must meet democratic standards, not situational agreements. Free, fair, and transparent elections are a guarantee of our democratic security, our future as a full member of the European Union. The question is not about the legitimacy of elections or the legitimacy of the result — the question is about standards of democracy and the genuine will of the people, not political manipulations.SourceAbout the author: Kostiantyn Yelisieiev, Ukrainian diplomat.The editorial office does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.









