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Russia preparing for hot war with Europe by 2029, NATO intel shows

global.espreso.tv
Tue, 09 Dec 2025 20:44:00 +0200
Russia preparing for hot war with Europe by 2029, NATO intel shows
The Financial Times reported the information.The publication recalls that in July 2024, packages exploded at DHL logistics centers in Britain, Poland, and Germany. The devices were powerful enough to bring down a cargo plane had the explosion occurred mid-air.Intelligence services later established that a group of saboteurs acting under Russian direction was behind the incidents. They had an additional 6 kg of explosives with them, sufficient to proceed to the next stage of their plan and attack flights to the United States. This could have caused the most significant disruption to the aviation industry since the September 11 attacks, FT reports.This attempt represents only part of a broader wave of Russian sabotage operations occurring across Europe since 2023-2024, ranging from attempts to derail passenger trains to arson attacks on shopping centers, water supply poisoning, and plans to blow up dams. Experts warn that Europe is only seeing part of the actual picture.Chatham House specialist Keir Giles notes that what is publicly known is merely the tip of the iceberg, as governments deliberately do not disclose many facts.Moscow acts strategicallyRecent intelligence assessments show that the scale of sabotage no longer resembles the minor provocations Russia previously used to irritate European states.Poland, Latvia, Estonia, and other border countries are convinced that Russia today poses no less a threat to civilian life than Islamist terrorism.An increasing number of intelligence officers believe this is not merely hybrid pressure but an escalation connected to preparation for possible war.FT references a classified 2023 NATO Joint Assessment indicating that the Kremlin is preparing its military and economic forces for a potential hot war with Europe by 2029.One European intelligence chief reported that his staff had observed Russians surveying road bridges, presumably with the intention of mining them. Similar observations are increasing across the continent.Gig economyFollowing mass expulsions of spies after 2018-2022, Moscow created a new sabotage model that analysts call the gig economy of espionage.Russia operates through intermediaries who pay in cryptocurrency, criminal networks, young men recruited via Telegram, and agents without direct links to Russia. These operatives are mobile, often without ideology, and easily replaceable. They are difficult to identify and nearly impossible to prosecute for espionage because their connection to Russian intelligence is typically obscured.A telling example is the attempted bombing on the Warsaw-Lublin railway. Prime Minister Donald Tusk called it an unprecedented act of sabotage intended to cause mass casualties. NATO Military Committee Chairman Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone told FT that the Alliance is already considering significantly tougher responses, including preventive measures against Russian sabotage networks.Keir Giles emphasizes that impunity is what Russia expects most. If a country simply labels it as hybrid warfare and limits itself to statements, Moscow will continue doing the same thing, only more of it.
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