The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.Moscow's leading economic research center has issued a stark warning that Russia could face an uncontrolled banking crisis by October 2026, as plummeting oil revenues strip the financial sector of the flexibility needed to absorb mounting losses.The price of Russia's Urals crude fell to $44.87 per barrel in November 2025, down from $54 in October—a sharp 18% monthly decline driven by mandatory discounts following sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft. Since the beginning of the year, Russian oil prices have collapsed 33%, or $23 per barrel, landing 35% below the revised budget forecast of $58 that Moscow adjusted to in April.The situation looks even more dire in ruble terms. At 3,256 rubles per barrel, current prices sit 38% below the revised budget projection and nearly 50% below the original forecast for the year.Beyond falling prices, Russian oil exporters are hemorrhaging money through escalating operational costs. Insurance premiums for vessels visiting Russian ports have surged over 250% in the Black Sea following Ukrainian strikes on oil tankers, according to Marsh, the world's largest insurance broker. Rates have jumped from 0.25-0.3% of vessel value to as high as 1%.Major shipping companies are severing ties with Russia entirely. Turkish shipping firm Besiktas announced it would cease all Russian operations after one of its tankers was damaged off the coast of Senegal, citing "extreme safety risks."Sanctions have also forced Russian companies to store record volumes of oil on tankers at sea. According to Bloomberg, the volume of crude sitting in tankers increased by more than 20% this fall, while transit times to Chinese ports have extended by 50%. Each additional day a loaded tanker spends at sea costs between $3,000 and $8,000 in technical expenses alone, excluding insurance and crew wages.The revenue squeeze is already destabilizing Russia's banking sector. MKB Bank, owned by Rosneft and ranked seventh largest in the country with systemically important status, reported that overdue loan payments have surged 700% since the start of the year. Non-performing loans reached 668 billion rubles—28% of the bank's entire portfolio.Rosneft acquired MKB in 2017 at the government's request to prevent its collapse, injecting hundreds of billions of rubles through deposits with terms extending to 2066. Whether the oil giant has the capacity to mount another rescue now—particularly with those existing deposits backed by failing loans—remains unclear.For the first nine months of 2025, Rosneft reported a 70% collapse in net profit, falling to just $3.51 billion compared to $11.72 billion in the same period a year earlier.Oil and gas revenues account for approximately 30% of Russia's federal budget, though analysts estimate the sector's true contribution—including downstream industries—may exceed 60% of total tax revenues. Petrodollar sales on the domestic market also serve as the primary source of foreign currency inflows.The Kremlin-affiliated Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMASF) has warned in a recent report that Russia could experience a systemic and uncontrolled banking crisis by October 2026 if current trends continue.