Both the first and second are lies. But Putin needs these lies for negotiations (imitation of negotiations).1. Negotiations in Miami, despite many positive statements from the Americans, apparently have no significance. Their result, if one looks at open sources, is the search for a formula for Ukraine's refusal to join NATO. I will not discover America when I say that our non-entry into NATO was already clear to everyone. These are correct and necessary concessions, but this will not affect the acceleration of the negotiation process in any way.2. From the U.S. perspective, territorial issues are key to negotiations. I have repeatedly written that Trump's logic is as follows: first, he believes that Ukraine needs to be pressured to withdraw from Donbas, and then he will pressure Putin to sign a peace agreement.3. The current round of negotiations seems to be a game by the Americans, showing that they are ready to test the Russians' willingness to negotiate and are not yet pressuring Ukraine. The logic seems to be this: Witkoff goes to the Russian Federation and says: Ukraine is not joining NATO according to such and such a formula. And then the Russians' response appears (for now, let's wait for the reaction). If the Kremlin does not take a tough stance, Washington will hold a second round of negotiations with us on some other issue. And so on. It seems that Trump has changed his blitzkrieg strategy to a strategy of constant intensive shuttle diplomacy. And this change, it seems, occurred with the appearance of Kushner in the negotiating group. For now, these are all assumptions. In the coming days, we will see if this strategy works, because the Russians will try to break it, and Trump can return to the idea of a blitzkrieg at any moment.4. The repeated "capture" of Pokrovsk is precisely what Putin needs to break this situation. He needs to prove to Witkoff today that he has made huge breakthroughs on the front and demand immediate territorial decisions, understanding that Ukraine will not agree to this now. Incidentally, he was once again informed about mythical encirclements, and this "trump card" will be pulled out again.5. At the same time, the situation will probably also depend on several factors far from Ukraine:the beginning of the escalation in Venezuela. We do not understand what game the U.S. will play now;Macron's visit to China (December 3-5), in addition to expanding bilateral relations between France and China, may also touch upon the issue of Ukraine. It is no coincidence that a meeting between Zelenskyy and Macron took place on the eve of this visit. I would not have illusions about quick decisions here, but we can definitely talk about the possible beginning of China's game to ensure a security factor for the EU, where Ukraine is part of this security factor;pressure on Russia through a partial reduction in Russian oil purchases by India and Turkey. All this tells us that the end of the war before the new year becomes unlikely. This requires simultaneously completely twisting Ukraine's arms and forcing Putin to stop. And this still looks unrealistic.But we must understand: the previous U.S. blitzkrieg achieved the main thing: Zelenskyy is already in a semi-suspended state, both due to the political crisis and due to the lack of clear funding in 2026 (in December, it seems, the European Commission will not give an answer regarding future allocations). And therefore, our position is quite shaky.SourceAbout the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.