Balanced between hope and anxiety, relentless war and longed for peace, embrace or abandonment by a key ally, Ukraine is standing at a potentially pivotal point. I say potentially because you have been here before. It has been difficult to discern at times whether the theatre of settlement has been an authentic search for a solution, a passage to procrastination, or a distraction from other pressing matters. On each occasion Russian intransigence has been unyielding, buying time but escalating the aggression. US strategic patience has been unpredictable, poised between wanting a quick fix and doing deals or walking away and abandoning Ukraine to its fate. The European Union and key European states, including the United Kingdom, and other allies want to do the right thing, want to reassure Ukraine that peace will be sustained through security guarantees but fear they currently lack the necessary military capability to guarantee doing so absent US intelligence and munitions continuity.

President Zelensky's observation on Ukraine's agonising choice between losing its dignity and losing a key ally is still in play. The Russian 28 point capitulation plan dressed up and presented as a US proposal with a Thanksgiving deadline, is now reportedly a 19 point plan. "Tremendous progress" is how the US President has characterised the consequences of intense negotiations. Meanwhile, as key sensitivities on security, justice and compensation remain to be resolved, unpromising noises from Moscow currently suggest caution on Russia ceasing its war of choice against Ukraine. Not risking the ire of President Trump by being seen as an obstacle to peace is something that both sides have sought to avoid in the past year. Hopefully this time round something more substantial and enduring respectful of Ukrainians enormous resilience and sacrifice might emerge.

You have suffered so much, paid such a high price in terms of destruction, death and injury, endured the endless and growing intensity of Russian drone and missile assaults, and fought so bravely to contain the aggressor your collective resilience, fortitude and national dignity are not in doubt. I earnestly hope that this time peace with justice and security for Ukraine can be achieved offering a new dawn after the long night of war and not another false dawn.

This war has been territorial but at its heart yours is a fight for your sovereignty, freedom, and democracy, to avoid becoming a vassal state of a neo-imperial Russia. A strong focus of my personal attention, but more importantly of your civil society engagement, is a deep understanding that when that time comes your first post war elections will become Russia's second war front against Ukraine. Like any battleground preparing the necessary defensive lines in advance is critical to ultimate success.

Expect Russian aggression across many fronts including cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, black and potentially false flag operations, including plausibly deniable security threats, and GRU/FSB dirty tricks and dirty money spent to corrupt, infiltrate and abuse your democratic process.

Successfully planning, organising, and delivering Ukraine's first post war elections needs to be a major milestone in underpinning a renewed pluralist democracy as a peacetime anchor, a foundation stone for all other reforms, and as a prerequisite to EU accession under the Copenhagen Criteria.

You know the many issues to be addressed. I will not enumerate them in this short message. What is clear is that the exceptional circumstances surrounding the first post war elections necessitate an exceptional one-off legislative act. This is the constitutional duty of the Verkhovna Rada and of it alone, inevitably in consultation with civil society and all other relevant political actors, including the Presidency. You have a network of world class Ukrainian civil society organisations and academic experts fully appraised of these needs, as are other relevant international players.

Through an almost decade long process known as the Jean Monnet Dialogues (JMD) I have been privileged to spend many hours in confidential discussion with the leadership and faction leaders of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on the subject of parliamentary reform and modernisation, including since late 2023 reflecting on post war electoral matters.

Should the current negotiations result in a ceasefire I expect there to be significant external pressure, particularly from the United States, at least to hold early presidential elections. The time to plan, organise and pre-legitimise such elections must not remain a matter of political and institutional paralysis and procrastination. I acknowledge the understandable reluctance of politicians to be seen to concentrate attention on politics and future elections when people are dying on a daily basis. But remember that thousands have fought and died to preserve your freedom and democracy. It does not honour their memory to fail to prepare that democracy for what will be a predictable and major Russian assault aimed at subverting through the ballot box what eleven years of war have failed to deliver on the battlefield.

You are Ukrainians – proud of who you are – determined to preserve your democratic freedoms – the time has come to prepare the second front to defend your post war electoral process from inevitable Russian assault and infiltration - you have defended your democracy before – you can and must do it again – I send you my warmest greetings and best wishes.

Slava Ukraini.