The Russian spring-summer-autumn offensive failed. The buffer zone in the Chernihiv region did not even begin. The buffer zone in the Sumy region was not created. Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad were not captured, Kupiansk was not captured, the offensive on Siversk and Lyman is stalled, and the offensive on Huliaipole is currently stopped.Compared to the same period last year, Russian advances are minimal. But if we compare the enemy's losses as of November 30, 2024, and now, they amount to 432,000 personnel. These lives were laid down to cross the Pokrovsk-Bakhmut highway, enter the borders of Pokrovsk, and approach Huliaipole. You might say that Putin doesn't care about losses? That's true. But the fact of these losses in exchange for minimal territorial gains exists, the impact exists, and it's impossible to dismiss it."In recent months, the total number of Russian troops in Ukraine has fluctuated around 709,000-710,000. This means that Russia is unable to increase the size of its army; it can only maintain its numbers."Without increasing the size of the army, it will be difficult for the Russians to achieve major advances. Slowly gnawing through the front, exchanging territory for hundreds and thousands of dead – yes. But not to defeat the Ukrainian Armed Forces! Although the defeat of the army is the key to victory in war. Defeat the army, and territories will fall into your hands themselves. But the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not defeated, and there are no prospects that this could happen. Why can't the Russians increase their army? The problem lies in the economic situation, which is undermined by the war. The presence of a recession in the Russian economy is recognized even at the official level and even by Kremlin economists. The crisis of budget non-payments is growing, which means there are problems with tax collection for the functioning of the state sector (the army in particular!). 56 regions of the Russian Federation have budget "holes," and since the lion's share of payments for signing contracts for service in the Russian Armed Forces is borne by local budgets – the conclusion is obvious.These are just a few facts. There are actually more markers. Without an economy, it is impossible to wage war. This is an axiom.You can remind me of the 166 billion dollars that Putin allocated in the federal budget for the war in 2026. Well, anything can be predicted on paper. Just like moving the city of Komsomolsk (Horishni Plavni??) from Poltava to the Donetsk region and on Gerasimov's maps "encircling" 15 battalions in Kupiansk. Reality always is and will be different.You can remind me of our problems. About corruption in government, "Mindich's tapes," etc. This is a disgusting case. Personally, I still feel like someone specifically picked my pocket. Because my electricity is also cut off. But the fight against corruption does not equal the need for capitulation, as some of our respected foreign partners try to convince us. You ask, what will happen to our economy if the West suddenly turns off all our life support systems? I answer. We will fall very quickly. But I hope that this problem can be solved. I cannot in any way influence the actions of the European Union in this regard, so all that remains is to observe. I see that attempts to help us are present. All I can do on my part is to maintain the stability of the rear, because without the rear, the front will not stand. Personally, I believe that real peace negotiations will begin in the spring under the influence of problems in the Russian economy. Kyrylo Budanov bets on February. But in any case, it will be 2026. So we need to stand this winter.I'll speak for myself. I am not satisfied with what I saw in the first edition of the "Witkoff plan." I do not support this! I see no reason for us to expose our rear! I explained why above. Will this plan change? OK, I'm ready to wait. Although I'm sure that at this stage we will return to "point 0" again. And then again shelling, power outages, darkness, maybe cold, etc.This is a war we did not start. Someone's apartment was fatally hit, relatives, friends, husband, brother, and son died at the front? My words of sympathy will not help your grief. We know who is responsible for this. It's long past time to accept that we are all at war and each of us can suffer in this war. Either we stand, or we will be destroyed. There will be no third option. But I want to remind you that now we are also striking back. There will also be darkness and even more cold there. Russia will always have more cold.I have already said that between capitulation and darkness, I will always choose darkness. I am ready to spend a couple of days, even a week, without electricity, heating the apartment with hot bricks and boiling water over a fire in the yard. You can also sleep in shelters, although it is uncomfortable. But the rear must stand for the front to stand. This game must be played to the end, although I agree that it is not a game at all. But spring will come anyway.SourceAbout the author. Denys Popovych, journalist, military observer.The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.