Russian forces have advanced to the edge of Huliaipole, a major town that serves as a key Ukrainian logistics and defense hub, creating a significant threat. This did not happen suddenly but was a gradual advance over the last fifteen months. Since the Russian army captured Vuhledar, its pace of progress in the southwestern Donetsk region has been consistently high.During this period, Russian troops have pushed 70 km to the west, capturing a series of Ukrainian fortified areas, including those in Velyka Novosilka, Kurakhove, Komar, and Kostiantynopil. Having broken into open territory, the Russian offensive on the southern front is now moving at its fastest pace since 2022, and Ukrainian forces have so far been unable to stabilize the front line. In the last three months alone, Russia has captured 250 square kilometers at the junction of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. In the second week of November, Russian forces seized over 160 square kilometers, one of the worst weekly losses for Ukraine in the war and certainly the worst this year. The vast majority of this captured territory is in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.This situation has led to alarming reports that the war could soon reach the outskirts of the city of Zaporizhzhia, which is another 70 km from Huliaipole with few prepared defensive lines in between. In October, Russian forces reached the Yanchur River along a nearly 30 km front. Using their position in Malynivka, which was captured in the summer, they crossed the river and pushed Ukrainian defense forces out of Poltavka, which had a strong defensive line. Moving north along the river, they then attacked another fortified area near the villages of Uspenivka and Novomykolaivka. By crossing the river in at least two places, Russian troops not only caused the collapse of the Ukrainian defense along the river but also advanced rapidly 9-10 km to the west.In doing so, they moved from low-lying areas to occupy the high ground near the villages of Rivnopillia and Nove, which overlook Huliaipole. This has given their drones a significant advantage, providing much better opportunities to attack the town. For now, however, they are not making a direct push into Huliaipole, instead working to secure their flanks and cut off logistics.On the right flank, another Ukrainian fortified position on the dominant heights above Huliaipole, near the villages of Vysoke and Zelenyi Hai, is now semi-encircled. Russian forces are attacking it not only from the east but now also from the north. Under these conditions, the Ukrainian defense here has begun to weaken, and Russian forces are gradually taking over their positions.On the left flank, Russian troops are trying to reach the highway that runs from Huliaipole to Pokrovske in the Dnipropetrovsk region. This highway is not only a vital supply artery but also the first line of a strong defensive belt. Beyond the highway, the Haichul River flows from south to north, and behind it lies another ridge of hills where a line of fortified defenses has been built. This is currently the only defensive line protecting the eastern flank of the southern front, from Zaporizhzhia through Orikhiv to Huliaipole. If it is breached, the entire southern front will be at risk of collapse.This is precisely the Russian army's goal. While they do plan to capture Huliaipole—and we will soon see street fighting in the town, where a full evacuation of civilians has not yet been completed—their main strike will be directed further north, near the village of Ternuvate. Here, between Pokrovske and Huliaipole, in the land between the Yanchur, Haichur, and Vovcha rivers, the Russians see an opportunity to break through Ukrainian defenses and get behind the defensive line built along the Haichul. By advancing westward, they aim not only to get behind the Ukrainian front near Orikhiv but also to bypass the defensive positions built around Pokrovske and along the Vovcha River, which has served as a formidable barrier in the defense of the Dnipropetrovsk region.Breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia could push the front deeper into the Dnipropetrovsk regionSince June, when Russian forces broke through near Komar, north of the Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia highway, they have been trying to continue their advance and cross the Vovcha River, but Ukrainian forces are holding them back. The Russians initially tried near Novopavlivka but got bogged down in fighting in villages along the river. They achieved occasional small breakthroughs across the river, but a lack of logistics and coordinated actions by Ukrainian defense forces prevented them from advancing further, and they failed to establish a secure bridgehead.They then approached another fortified area near Velykomykhailivka and made new attempts to cross the river, but Ukrainian forces pushed them out. Now, they are trying to gain a foothold in Oleksiivka and Orestopil, where numerous sabotage and reconnaissance groups have already infiltrated. Simultaneously, Russian forces are attacking Novooleksandrivka and trying to break through north of Vyshneve. Their goal is to reach the Vovcha River on the widest possible front before the frost sets in. If the frost is severe enough to freeze the river, the defensive line will become extremely vulnerable.In the meantime, Russian forces want to break through to the north along the Yanchur River and reach the highway to Pokrovske near Danyliwka. Since early November, they have been trying to capture Yehorivka to create a bridgehead on the other side of the river to launch an offensive on Danyliwka. Although reconnaissance groups have been destroyed in Danyliwka itself, the Russians have not yet fully secured Yehorivka. However, this is where they will focus their main efforts. Danyliwka and its neighboring villages could become the key to breaking the Ukrainian defense, allowing Russian forces to flank Ukrainian troops and begin the siege of the first major town in the Dnipropetrovsk region.While the rivers have been a reliable defense, autumn fogs have recently aided the Russian army. Under the cover of fog, Russian armored vehicles crossed the Vovcha River near Dachne and drove 10 km to Novopavlivka without a fight, dropping off troops. They managed to do this twice. However, their attempt to secure a position failed just as quickly as they arrived. Most of the landing force was killed or captured. Although this blitz failed, the Russian army is now trying to hold a bridgehead near Dachne to launch future attacks on Novopavlivka. This attack demonstrated a worrying new trend of opportunities to cross the river, which will only increase as colder weather arrives.The maps were created based on information received from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ General Staff, as well as from other open and verified sources. At the same time, the maps are not completely accurate and only conditionally reflect the trends in the combat zone.