Russia will have enough two brigades for a military operation against NATO — Wagner

Russia's goal in a potential conflict with NATO will not be to break through to the English Channel, but to collapse the alliance itself from within. The impetus for this could be a limited military operation carried out by the force of literally two brigades. Colonel of the German army Armin Wagner, a military historian and author of the book "The ABCs of the Apocalypse," told DW in an interview.

He notes that in the 1970s and 1980s, NATO planners considered the most likely scenario to be a full-scale war with the Soviet Union, in which hordes of Soviet tanks would rush through West Germany to the English Channel. However, it is now increasingly clear that Russian aggression against NATO will be more limited in military terms but more intense in the information sphere.

The most likely scenario that NATO is considering today is "needle pricks" from Russia, says Wagner. And these pricks will be inflicted, according to him, against the Baltic states.

The analyst refers to a recently published book by German political scientist Carlo Massal, which describes a realistic scenario in which the Russian Federation quickly captures the border city of Narva with the forces of two army brigades (from 6 to 10 thousand soldiers), which can be implemented without harming the Russian Federation's efforts on the front in Ukraine.

According to Wagner, the purpose of a limited invasion of Estonia would be to try to provoke a split within NATO, with Western and Southern European countries refusing to enter into direct conflict with Russia over what looks like a small border dispute on the other side of the continent.

Wagner notes that Moscow seeks to revive the empire within its former borders if possible, and the war in Ukraine is a failed attempt on this path. In his opinion, the bloody meat grinder in Ukraine is not what the Kremlin plans to do next to seize the remaining territories.