Defense Express reported the information.Ukraine's long-held ambition to field its own long-range ballistic missiles—a strategic deterrent capable of striking 500km to 1,000km—is stalled, raising urgent questions about the program's viability.The centerpiece of this ambition is the Sapsan missile system (also known as the Hrim-2 for export), which was publicly displayed as far back as 2018. In 2021, officials confidently stated the project was 80% complete. Yet, nearly five years later, mass production has not begun. While unofficial reports in 2024 pointed to a successful test strike at nearly 300km, this falls significantly short of the Sapsan's 480km design specification and the 1,000km range Kyiv needs to hold strategic Russian targets at risk.The primary bottleneck is a highly complex technical challenge: the domestic production of solid rocket fuel. According to experts like Zinoviy Pak, a former general director for Soviet-era ballistic missile engine development, this is a sophisticated item that cannot be purchased from allies and must be engineered from scratch.For years, Ukraine's hopes rested on the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant (PCP). There was a widespread belief, even within the industry, that usable fuel could be "simply and quickly" recycled from old Soviet-era SS-24 missiles being decommissioned at the site. However, sources report these "ersatz-recipes" have proven unreliable and technically problematic.This deep-seated technical problem is now overshadowed by an existential military threat: the Pavlohrad plant is located only 80 kilometers from the advancing front line. The facility's extreme vulnerability makes sustained, safe production of rocket fuel nearly impossible.Relocating the plant is not considered a viable option. The PCP is a massive, 700-hectare Soviet legacy facility built around an outdated and dangerous 1950s-era "drunken barrel" mixing technology. Experts argue that rebuilding such an obsolete and sprawling complex deep in the rear makes no sense.Instead, analysts insist Ukraine needs a systemic reboot of its entire missile production strategy. This would require moving away from "firefighting" short-term fixes and investing in a new generation of designers and modern production technology. The proposed solution involves building new, highly protected, and compact facilities, possibly in 20-meter-diameter spheres designed to withstand massive internal explosions and external missile strikes.These advanced production sites could potentially be constructed in secure locations, such as the former Object S sites where the Soviet Union once stored its tactical nuclear weapons. Without such an urgent pivot, Ukraine's dream of a powerful domestic deterrent may evaporate just when it is needed most.