Russia's seaborne crude oil exports have fallen sharply – the steepest decline since January 2024 – as new US sanctions force key buyers to pause purchases from Moscow.

Source: Bloomberg

Quote: "Four-week average volumes from the country's ports were 3.58 million barrels a day to 2 November, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, down by about 190,000 from the revised figure for the period to 26 October."

Details: The slump has hit Moscow's oil revenues, which fell to their lowest level since August, following the US ban on dealings with Russia's two biggest exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil. Refineries in China, India and Türkiye have temporarily halted purchases of sanctioned cargoes and are seeking alternatives.

Although Russian exporters continue to load crude onto tankers, refineries are in no hurry to take delivery, leaving volumes of Russian oil at sea rising to more than 380 million barrels – an increase of 27 million barrels, or 8%, since early September, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

India, China and Türkiye together account for over 95% of Russia's seaborne crude exports, meaning it is almost impossible to offset even a moderate reduction in their imports.

Moscow is likely to keep loading tankers even if shipments remain in floating storage, making the volume of oil at sea an increasingly important indicator of the sanctions' impact.

Background:

• The United States recently imposed sanctions on Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, along with their subsidiaries.
• On 23 October, the European Union approved its 19th package of sanctions against Russia.

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