Yuliya Pavytska, head of the Sanctions Expertise Hub at the Kyiv School of Economics, shared the information on Espreso TV.“Regarding the state of Russian industries where a ‘black swan’ event could occur and trigger a chain reaction for the Russian economy, there are many such sectors, but they don’t primarily affect the population’s well-being. At the same time, there are several sectors under severe strain due to sanctions and internal economic issues, driven by the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy to fight inflation. If we talk about potential ‘black swans’ for Russia, successful attacks by Ukraine’s Armed Forces could be one, since the fuel crisis in Russia continues. Russian experts estimate that the country will not be able to quickly overcome this crisis, which not only fuels public discontent but also creates significant inflationary pressure. Consequently, the Central Bank will continue to maintain a strict monetary policy,” Pavytska commented.She added that Russia also faces major problems in the coal industry, which has failed to reorient its exports to new countries after sanctions and cannot compete effectively. Additionally, the machine-building sector is in poor condition, with Western manufacturers having exited the market, while Chinese companies and electric vehicles have flooded it, without plans to invest further.“Russia’s aviation industry is experiencing significant issues. It would actually be better for Russians to stop using domestic airlines, as Russia cannot properly maintain its aircraft due to a shortage of necessary components. The latest figures on Russian industry indicate that cumulative growth over the first seven months of 2025 was only 0.7% compared to last year. Industry is not growing; many sectors are starting to decline. Growth in sectors supporting the military-industrial complex is also slowing. They are still growing, but not at the pace seen last year,” the economist emphasized.Pavytska noted that the funds Russia pours into the military-industrial complex and related sectors are insufficient to maintain their viability.“The last sector I want to highlight is construction. In previous years, this sector grew significantly due to preferential loans for the military sector, but now it is contracting. We are also seeing declines in related industries. For example, cement production has fallen cumulatively by 10% in the country, indicating reduced demand, so the sector is shrinking. Growth had been fueled by cheap loans, which Russians can no longer afford,” Pavytska concluded.