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Ukraine's bid for 25 Patriots faces reality of scarcity, soaring costs, global queue

global.espreso.tv
Thu, 23 Oct 2025 21:15:00 +0300
Ukraine's bid for 25 Patriots faces reality of scarcity, soaring costs, global queue
Defense Express CEO Serhiy Zgurets stated this on Espreso TV."We currently have around 8 Patriot systems. Previously, it was said that we needed at least 10 more. Now, we are talking about an additional 25. In reality, this is a significant number. The manufacturer's production rate is one system per year. If we are talking about new models, they are also scheduled in advance. In any case, it will not be quick, unless the Americans decide to transfer their own stockpiles to us. But those include Patriots with PAC-2 missiles, which are suitable for combating aerodynamic targets, i.e., aircraft. When we talk about PAC-3 systems, which can shoot down ballistic missiles, they indeed need to be manufactured, and we have to wait. But in any case, it should be understood that no matter how many Patriot air defense systems we receive in the near future, the most critical issue remains the missiles that can intercept ballistic targets," the military expert explained.The manufacturing company can produce only 700 missiles per year for all Patriot owners, including the Americans. "This indicates that this quantity will, of course, be insufficient even for one country. Therefore, in any case, the issue now is not only the number of Patriot systems but also the missiles capable of shooting down ballistic threats. There is a queue for these missiles," says Serhiy Zgurets.Last year, these missiles were transferred to Ukraine, bypassing existing contracts."This decision was made by the previous U.S. administration. Now, the situation is such that the Americans are unlikely to let us jump the queue. But even a purchase is limited by manufacturing capacity."Each of the 25 announced systems consists of a command post, a radar, and 4-8 launchers. Each launcher's magazine holds 4 or more missiles."In some locations, there will be four launchers, in others, eight. Therefore, it's not entirely accurate to talk only about the number of launchers – this doesn't fully reflect combat capability. The main thing is to correctly distribute the systems across the territory, which requires command posts and radars to ensure target detection and tracking. The launchers themselves perform the direct missile launch," the expert concluded.How much do Patriot systems cost?In the Defense Express publication, military analysts explained in detail how much money is needed for 25 Patriot air defense systems and whether the queue can be shifted in Ukraine's favor.The standard formula of "one Patriot for one billion dollars" is no longer relevant."For Ukraine, where the Patriots are meant to be actively used, not just stationed, a corresponding number of missiles must be added. Based on three launchers, that's a full salvo of 18 MSE missiles, which are necessary to shoot down ballistic missiles. A notional three full ammunition loads would be 54 missiles. The minimum price for an MSE missile for the Patriot in the coming years is $4.97 million per unit. And this is the price for the U.S. armed forces, at which the Pentagon ordered them for its own needs; the export price will obviously be higher. Therefore, if we add a notional $250 million for the missiles, the price for an incomplete battery would be $1.85 billion," the article states.And if we are talking about 25 Patriot PAC-3 batteries, the cost would exceed $46 billion.However, to receive these systems, Ukraine would need to get ahead of everyone else in line."Currently in Europe, Poland, Switzerland, Sweden, Romania, Germany, and the Netherlands are waiting to receive new Patriots. They have collectively ordered or declared orders for approximately 35 batteries of various configurations," writes Defense Express.
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