1. It is already mid-autumn. The offensive potential of the Russian troops is not yet exhausted; they will be technically able to maintain pressure for at least another month."However, if previously, according to Putin, Russian troops were "attacking along the entire front," now, in his own words, they only possess the "strategic initiative." That is, they seem to be advancing, but by no means everywhere, and much more slowly than planned."There is Russian movement in the Kupiansk district, they are trying to reach towards Lyman, the pressure on Pokrovsk is not weakening, there are incursions into the Dnipropetrovsk region and movements in the Zaporizhzhia region. But even from the nature of the use of units and formations, it is clear that the plans have been disrupted.For example, the marine infantry (specifically from the Far East), concentrated for an offensive on Kostiantynivka, is being thrown in to save the "Dobropillia wedge," and it is "burning up" there. There are many videos online of Russian assaults in this area. The enemy has suffered heavy losses in manpower and equipment. This means the plans for Kostiantynivka will be adjusted.The enemy is facing the prospect of entering winter with the task of storming cities from the open fields, for which the conditions do not exist. The Russian command has a month to somehow change this most traumatic scenario for the Russian army. But how to do this given the current nature of the war is unclear. They urgently need to find many, many trained troops from somewhere. Or somehow break the rear of the Ukrainian army.Since both are doubtful (and everyone understands this), the backdrop for dialogue is the prospect of a long and bloody confrontation with a minimal probability of a breakthrough in Russia's favor."Therefore, there are no grounds for Russian ultimatums of a military nature. Either they must quickly come up with something unexpected, or accept the "realities on the ground." And even Vance has already said this publicly."2. There is also a "front line" within Russia itself and in the occupied territories.The Maliuk and Friends Impose Sanctions column is updated daily. The other day, the Special Operations Forces (SSO) reached the refinery in Saratov, and something happened at the refinery in Kstovo (Nizhny Novgorod).The oil depot in Feodosia, which was set on fire four days ago by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) together with the SSO, is still burning. Yesterday, an oil storage facility in Hvardiyske (tanks of the ATAN gas station network) caught fire. The damages have not yet been determined, but even if only one tank is damaged, the fuel situation on the occupied peninsula will become even more complicated. Complaints that sellers are diluting gasoline were among the first to appear in Crimea. Consequently, the room for maneuver to support the occupying group in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions will be narrower.In the last three days, in addition to the electrical substations in Crimea, something happened at the Arzamasskaya (500 kV), Balashovskaya (500 kV), and Vladimirskaya (750 kV) substations. This is in addition to minor incidents at Russian Railways (RZhD) stations and characteristic sounds at warehouses in the Donetsk region.The night was restless in the Sochi/Adler area. The Russian air defense forces did not fail: they shot down their own Su-30SM that had taken off from the airport in Tikhoretsk (in Kuban). Now it needs to be replaced with something.How can one understand how sensitive the Ukrainian strikes on Russia are? Budanov assessed the day before yesterday: Ukraine's activity had a greater effect than all international sanctions combined.The Russians also talk about this, but in a peculiar way.For example, FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov spoke in the style of "the Englishwoman is up to no good" at a meeting of the Council of Heads of Security and Intelligence Agencies of the CIS member states in Samarkand (Uzbekistan). He claimed that British special services are behind all the high-profile attacks on Russian territory (for example, Spider's Web executed by the SBU). Russians physiologically cannot stand that Ukrainians are outplaying them. Of course, admitting it politically is even harder.As soon as similar rhetoric is activated, one can assume that the Kremlin is in great pain and needs to somehow explain its failures. "The antics of Western special services" is a standard trick.3. Meanwhile, Moscow maintains its image as a destructive force. This is still problematic, but not as scary as it seems.Two days ago, the Swedes reported that they had found a Russian submarine in the Baltic Sea.FBI Director Kash Patel reported a 33% increase in the number of cases related to hostile activities in favor of Russia.The spectrum of incidents in Europe is well known."On the one hand, there is a demand for some kind of "détente," on the other hand, there is an understanding that this Kremlin blackmail can resume at any moment. Therefore, comprehensive solutions regarding Russia are needed to curb its geopolitical hooliganism."Putin himself is provoking such decisions from the Europeans. From strengthening the anti-terrorist regime against business entities, even those with minor ties to the Russian Federation, to shifting activity to Russian territory.4. I am not yet ready to assess India's hypothetical actions regarding Russian oil. The decrease in hydrocarbon prices is also pleasing to the eye. If everything is confirmed, and low prices become the new norm for a significant period, the Russian budget will be in a lot of pain.Russians are already slowly sinking into a quiet sorrow. You can take any news feed and compile a digest of deterioration: inflation, deficits, a drop in quality, etc. For example, there are statistics that preparing a car for winter will cost an average of 15% more than before. Plus the rise in fuel prices. Plus, as a consequence, an increase in prices for everything.In 2023, real wages in Russia were slightly increased. This is not happening now, and prices are rising.Conclusions.One can speculate about Tomahawks and aircraft carriers. But the material basis cannot be ignored.The situation in Ukraine is difficult and worsening. But in Russia, the situation is deteriorating more noticeably. The trend is very telling. The price of each month of Putin's stubbornness is rapidly increasing for the Russian Federation.Trump has already said it openly: if you were striving to be a hegemon but failed to implement your military plans within a week, you need to figure something out.The meeting between Trump and Putin will take place in early November (just before the first anniversary of the US elections). During this time, an avalanche of various fabrications will be poured on us. Even more powerful than now.The resilience of societies is one of the parameters that will seriously affect the course of the discussion and its outcome. It makes sense to focus not on the information picture and interpretations, but on preparing for possible utility difficulties. This is everyone's contribution to the negotiations.SourceAbout the author. Oleksii Kopytko, former advisor to the Ukrainian Defense Minister.The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.