Contents1. Three-way friendship: Orbán, Trump, and Putin under an arrest warrant2. Why not Istanbul?3. What are the scenarios for Putin's route to Hungary?According to both leaders, the summit will take place in about two weeks in Budapest, unless something extraordinary happens. Preliminary talks between high-ranking officials from both countries are scheduled for next week to determine the leaders' agenda, and Hungary has already declared itself an “island of peace” and is actively preparing for the event.But the question arises: why Budapest, and how will the Russian leader get there if European airspace is closed to him?Three-way friendship: Orbán, Trump, and Putin under an arrest warrantViktor Orbán and Vladimir Putin, photo: Zoltán Kovács (X)When news emerged that Trump might meet with Putin again, Budapest immediately became a topic of discussion. And not only because the Hungarian capital is a beautiful European city. The main reason is Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has long positioned himself as a mediator between the West and Russia and pursues a “special” policy that, from the perspective of Ukraine and European security, is clearly subversive and harmful due to his pro-Russian views, statements, and actions.The Kremlin places its trust in Orbán, and the U.S. president has expressed admiration for him, repeatedly calling him a “great leader.” According to Putin’s adviser Yuri Ushakov, the idea of a meeting in Budapest originated with Trump, and Putin supported it. This is not surprising, as Orbán is considered Putin’s closest ally in the European Union. He has repeatedly expressed his willingness to host meetings between Trump and Putin — as well as between Zelenskyy and Putin — in the interest of achieving peace in Ukraine.Now Orbán is not hiding his joy: “Preparations for the USA-Russia peace summit are underway. Hungary is the island of PEACE!,” he wrote on social media after a phone call with Trump. He immediately spoke with Putin, which was confirmed by the Kremlin.“Budapest is the only suitable place in Europe for a USA–Russia peace summit,” Orbán boasted.Orbán and Trump, photo: X/pm_viktororbanHungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó told journalists that Hungary would “welcome” Putin with “respect” and “ensure his entry into the country and safe return home.”“No agreements with anyone are needed,” the minister added, stating that Hungary would not arrest Putin at the request of The Hague.As is widely known, the Kremlin leader is subject to international sanctions and an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for the abduction of Ukrainian children. While most European countries would be obliged to detain him, Hungary appears to be a “special case” in this regard.In April this year, Orbán announced his intention to withdraw from the Rome Statute of the ICC, calling the court a “political tool” rather than “independent justice.” Formally, the process began on May 20, when parliament approved the bill, and on June 2, Hungary notified the UN Secretary-General. The withdrawal will take effect on June 2, 2026, but it already allows Orbán to ignore ICC warrants. In particular, back in April, Budapest hosted another leader with an arrest warrant, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and at that time no one even attempted to comply with the court's demands. This sent a clear signal: Hungary is not going to interfere in the affairs of its friends, even if the world accuses them of international crimes.Why not Istanbul?Ukrainian and Russian sides during negotiations in Istanbul, photo: Getty ImagesAlthough Istanbul might seem like a logical choice — Turkey has repeatedly hosted negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and it is also physically closer to Russia — Putin probably does not trust Erdogan.This conclusion can be drawn from the fact that, despite friendly relations and economic cooperation, the Kremlin leader has several times agreed to, postponed, and canceled his visit to Turkey during the full-scale war against Ukraine. One of the public “excuses” was that Putin allegedly demanded but did not receive an escort of fighter jets for his plane. This is a common fear, remembering the story of the downing of a Russian fighter jet that violated Turkish airspace in 2015.Another possible reason may be purely aimed at the Russian electorate. Propagandists could argue loudly that everyone recognizes Putin: he is holding a meeting in the EU, and no one is arresting him, so he must be doing everything “right.”In other words, Trump could initially have proposed Istanbul, as he had suggested a few days earlier that Erdogan could help mediate the war. However, the Kremlin appears to have trusted the “Chosen One” and opted for greater media impact by holding the meeting in the EU. Of course, this remains speculation until reliable sources clarify the real reasons behind the choice of Budapest.What are the scenarios for Putin's trip to Hungary?Options for Putin's flight to Hungary, photo: Espreso collageCurrently, the biggest question is not so much the meeting itself as how Putin will get there. “It is unclear at this point,” said the Kremlin spokesman.Ukraine, of course, will not allow any Russian planes to pass through its airspace. As a result, the Kremlin must consider several detour routes.A European Commission spokeswoman noted that despite sanctions and frozen assets, the European Union will permit Putin, Lavrov, and their entourage to enter, as there has “never been” a formal entry ban on them. However, the EU has closed its airspace to Russian civil aviation due to sanctions. Whether to allow Putin’s plane to fly is therefore “at the discretion of individual EU member states.”This means the Trump administration will likely become involved to help ensure that these countries allow Putin’s plane into their airspace.What are the options?No. 1. Shortest route: either through Belarus, then Poland and Slovakia, or via the Black Sea and Romania. While Slovakia — with its pro-Russian Prime Minister Fico — would likely allow Putin’s plane to pass without issue, Poland presents more questions. After two dozen Russian drones entered Polish airspace and were shot down by NATO aircraft, and with Polish authorities preparing for a possible Russian attack, convincing the public to accept such a flight will require careful justification. As for Romania, the Kremlin may be wary of flying near Ukrainian territories, where Patriot, Neptune, and Flamingo systems are active...No. 2. Longer but simpler routes: either via the Black Sea through Bulgaria, Serbia, and then Hungary, or through the Black Sea, Turkey, and the Mediterranean, passing the Balkan countries (Montenegro, Albania, or Serbia) to reach Hungary. These routes are more convenient for the Kremlin, as they minimize time spent in “unfriendly” airspace, with Serbia being sympathetic to Putin.No. 3. Longer and more complicated routes: either across the Baltic Sea, then Germany and Austria to Hungary, or across the Black Sea, Turkey, the Mediterranean, Italy, and then Austria and Hungary. These options seem less likely. Even if neutral Austria allowed Putin to pass, it would likely trigger questions in Germany, especially after recent “unknown” drones over airports and German authorities’ ongoing efforts to alert the public to Russian threats. Additionally, the German Foreign Ministry has noted that Hungary would be obliged to arrest Putin under an ICC warrant. As for the Italy route, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni would probably have no objections, given her support for Trump’s ideas. However, for the Russians, the main challenge would be the extended time spent in “unfriendly” airspace.Of course, there is a fourth option, which Ukrainians are jokingly discussing on social media — the Druzhba oil pipeline, which leads directly to Hungary. However, as users have pointed out, Putin would have to pay dearly for transit through Ukraine, and given the ruble exchange rate, it is not certain that he would have enough money for a return ticket...In any case, whichever route Putin chooses, his loyal Foreign Minister Lavrov will be the first to use it, not only to agree on the details of the visit with his American counterpart, but also to check whether the road will be safe for his boss.As for the negotiations themselves, if history repeats itself, as it did in Alaska when, according to the Financial Times, Putin began telling Trump about Rurik and Khmelnytskyi, they will not produce any results. On the other hand, the intransigence of the Kremlin leader may finally push the U.S. president to give Ukraine all the promised weapons (in particular, Tomahawks) and impose maximum sanctions against Russian oil and gas. For now, it looks like American diplomacy will be “on hold” and the Russian-Ukrainian war will continue unchanged.Read also: Tomahawks after Budapest? Trump's diplomatic tightrope between Zelenskyy and Putin