ContentsTrump's diplomacy: Zelenskyy's ups and downs in WashingtonPutin lies, Trump gets disappointedThe big political game of “who will outsmart whom”The meeting in Budapest, like another season of the same seriesThis “betrayal” pushed the U.S. president from pressuring Ukraine on a peace deal to openly supporting its victory. Trump began praising Zelenskyy, approving Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, limiting Russia’s “oil dollars,” and even hinting at supplying Tomahawk missiles. However, one “good phone call” between Trump and Putin seems to have reset the situation, with threats likely to resurface after the planned meeting in Hungary.Espreso will talk more about the peculiarities of diplomatic merry-go-rounds in Washington politics.Trump's diplomacy: Zelenskyy's ups and downs in WashingtonDuring the full-scale war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy experienced both his greatest political triumph in Washington - receiving standing ovations in Congress under President Biden - and his greatest humiliation, when in February of this year, President Trump publicly scolded him on camera and ushered him out of the White House.During nearly nine months of Donald Trump’s presidency, the U.S. administration’s stance toward Ukraine shifted several times. Various statements suggested that Ukraine would have to make concessions if it wanted a peace deal with Putin’s regime. In contrast, Trump pursued “gentle” diplomacy with Russia, especially after “excellent phone calls” with the Kremlin dictator. Ukraine was consistently second in Trump’s thinking, while Russia came first, as he mistakenly assumed Kyiv’s defeat was inevitable (“you have no cards!”), portraying his actions as a service to Ukrainians for which he deserved the Nobel Peace Prize.In fact, the Alaska summit on August 15 was meant to showcase Trump’s diplomacy. Arriving with promises of “serious consequences” if talks failed, the U.S. president hoped for an immediate ceasefire and a swift meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy. Trump even offered Moscow a “generous” plan: recognition of Crimea as Russian, a frozen front line, lifted sanctions, and joint Arctic projects.It seemed, what more could Putin want?Putin lies, Trump gets disappointedBut no - the essence of the current war proved to be something else. While Putin praised Trump for his “productivity,” in practice all promises turned out to be empty. Instead of dialogue, Russia launched a new offensive, stepped up airstrikes - especially on energy and gas infrastructure - and continued killing civilians across Ukraine. The Kremlin has not softened its imperial ambitions or its ultimatum-style demands regarding the “root causes of the conflict,” as Moscow parrots endlessly. Moreover, Russia has increasingly intimidated NATO countries with drones and aircraft, which now expect that a war with Russia is likely unavoidable in the next five years.Yet this tactic has backfired on Moscow.Because Trump gradually shifted his stance, realizing he was being played. He replaced his “neutrality” in the war with a generous rhetoric toward Zelenskyy and Ukraine, praising both the Ukrainian president and soldiers, while promising increased weapons sales and efforts to cut Russia’s oil revenues (according to the White House, India has already begun reducing purchases, though the Indians themselves do not directly confirm this).Notably, Trump began criticizing Europe, which continues to buy Russian energy directly or through intermediaries worth billions of dollars. At the UN General Assembly, he stated that Ukraine “can take everything back” with NATO and EU support - a radical shift from his earlier idea of a “territory exchange.” In other words, Trump started speaking in terms of a Ukrainian victory, calling Russia a “paper tiger.” He recently hinted at a Ukrainian counteroffensive and promised to provide Tomahawk missiles, which could help weaken Russian military infrastructure. Moreover, the Trump administration has not held back on intelligence for strikes on Russian oil refineries to weaken the enemy’s economy.But does all this indicate a truly radical change in Trump’s perception of the Russia-Ukraine war?The big political game of “who will outsmart whom”It’s clear that most analysts don’t share this view, as they distrust Trump’s shifting rhetoric. As Politico notes, Trump sees this war through the lens of his relationship with Putin, so for him, “the best way to get back at Putin is to praise Zelenskyy.”Moreover, it is typical for Trump to promise more than he delivers. For example, U.S. plans to tighten sanctions on Russia have been discussed since almost the beginning of the year, yet Trump is still mulling them over - threatening on social media, using Republican leaders to amplify his rhetoric, blaming Europeans, and making many other statements that have so far failed to launch the “powerful sanctions” that could cripple Russia’s war economy.Talks about the Tomahawks have also been going on for some time. But Trump explicitly said he would first discuss them with Putin before deciding whether to give them to Ukraine… and that is what happened.In other words, Trump’s threats toward Russia do not materialize quickly, as he hopes this will scare Putin into changing his position. These are his “tools of pressure.”However, as the Ukrainian president has repeatedly said - and as has proven true - Putin only understands the language of force, and any hesitation is seen as weakness, which he exploits for his own goals and ambitions.The meeting in Budapest, like another season of the same seriesA striking confirmation that Putin continues to manipulate Trump is the aftermath of their recent phone call. After it, the U.S. president again spoke of a “good conversation” and, most importantly, a new personal meeting, this time set to take place in Hungary. This means that previous statements about more weapons, Tomahawks for Ukraine, and new sanctions on Russia (on the contrary, Russian company stocks have only soared) could once again remain in limbo for an indefinite period while Trump and Putin have coffee in Budapest (in the EU, in NATO!).Of course, the U.S. president will believe that this brings the countries closer to peace, specifically a personal meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin that could lead to a pause in the war. However, as this year has shown, the Russians use diplomacy only to delay the war and continue their aggression. In Istanbul, during negotiations, they threatened to seize new regions if Ukraine simply did not comply with Putin’s demands. In other words, the Kremlin could once again use another round of talks to stall Trump’s threats, further legitimize Putin on the international stage, and, of course, continue its aggression in Ukraine.Although The Times, ahead of the Ukrainian president’s visit to Washington, published a favorable article stating that “Zelenskyy defeated Trump” in the diplomatic game for primacy in friendship with the U.S. leader - suggesting that on Friday, October 17, he would arrive at the White House “not as a supplicant, but as a friend and partner” - in reality, Ukraine remains for the U.S. president more of a tool, or, in his own terms, a “card” in the larger geopolitical game against Russia and China, which backs it. Yes, Zelenskyy has learned the lesson that in a room with Trump there can be “only one diva,” and she must constantly be praised and agreed with - even if she talks about a war between “Albania and Azerbaijan” - yet this does not influence the final decisions of the U.S. leader.Trump appears to continue playing his favorite game - the “both sides” politics - maintaining his signature unpredictability to stay in the spotlight and retain maneuvering room: showing support for Ukraine while not cutting ties with Putin. His strategy relies on constant uncertainty: no one knows whether his latest compliment to Zelenskyy reflects genuine support or is just part of bargaining with Moscow. In this game, Trump still presents himself as a mediator of peace but sees himself as the main director of a global spectacle, where even the war in Ukraine becomes merely a stage for his own political show.