The analytical community Resurgam reported the development, noting that these cuts could mark the Kremlin’s attempt to test public reaction before wider implementation.About a month ago, Resurgam examined the mounting fiscal problems in regional budgets, which provide between 60% and 80% of the financial incentives for recruiting contract soldiers for the war in Ukraine. The experts emphasize that while war spending is the last thing the Kremlin would normally cut, the current economic pressures appear to be forcing otherwise unthinkable decisions.In early October, complaints surfaced online from Tatarstan, Chuvashia, and Mari El, where those who had recently signed contracts expecting payments of 2.1 to 3.5 million rubles discovered they would now receive significantly less. At first, there was no official confirmation, as Russian authorities appeared to be concealing the information. However, Resurgam notes that confirmation eventually came when regional military commissariat websites quietly changed their banners, listing far smaller contract payments. Local media also began to acknowledge the reductions.In Chuvashia, payments fell from 2.5 million to 800,000 rubles.In Tatarstan, from 3.1 million to 800,000 rubles.In Mari El, from 2.6 million to 800,000 rubles.Resurgam highlights several important aspects of the situation:1. How the cuts were made.Unlike past increases in payments, neither local nor federal authorities announced or commented on the reductions. Information only surfaced after it was discussed online and later confirmed by Kommersant.2. Where the cuts began.Resurgam explains that reductions were first implemented in less densely populated regions, meaning the effect on overall mobilization rates will be limited. However, this approach allows Moscow to assess potential risks — particularly how reduced financial motivation will affect recruitment in regions with high mobilization potential.The group also notes a likely “delayed mobilization” effect: people in regions where payments have not yet been cut may rush to sign contracts before reductions reach their area. This mirrors the brief surge in contract enlistments at the start of the year, when some Russians expected a “quick victory” and sought fast financial rewards.3. Why these regions were targeted.According to Resurgam’s earlier research, the affected regions already faced severe budget deficits. In 2024, Chuvashia’s subsidy rate reached 43% (up from 7% in 2015), and Mari El’s rose to 50% (from 24% in 2015). The deepening economic crisis has further reduced tax revenues, making these regions increasingly dependent on federal subsidies expected later in the year.4. How much was cut — and why 800,000 rubles.Resurgam believes it is unlikely that all three republics independently set the same figure of 800,000 rubles. The identical reductions likely stem from a directive from Moscow, serving as a test threshold for future cuts in other regions. With 64 of Russia’s 83 regions struggling with local budget shortfalls, Resurgam warns that further payment reductions may soon extend across the country.