18 million Russians live below the poverty line

Russia has faced serious problems in supplying gas to foreign markets. The construction of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, which is officially allegedly agreed with China, could take at least ten years.

At the same time, even the key elements of the agreement — pricing, investment conditions, and delivery start dates — have not yet been agreed upon.

It will take about five years to complete construction, and another five years to ramp up supply. One of the main constraints is China's requirement to buy gas at domestic Russian prices.

Today, Gazprom sells gas to China at an average of $248 per thousand cubic meters, 38% less than other customers in distant countries, who pay $402 per thousand cubic meters. Next year, the price for China will drop to $240, which will remain 37% lower than for Gazprom's other buyers ($380).

In this form, exports to China compensate for only about a fifth of the previous supplies to Europe, which after the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine decreased by a factor of 12. For comparison: in 1975, the volume of supplies to the EU was 19.3 billion cubic meters, in 1980 — already 54.8 billion. Before 2022, Gazprom's peak exports to Europe reached 200 billion cubic meters.

The real number of people below the poverty line in the Russian Federation is approximately 18 million people. To provide 15-20 million citizens with food rations, the state would have to spend approximately $11-15 billion.

At the same time, a sharp increase in spending is planned primarily for the "national security" item.

According to the department, in the draft Federal Budget for 2026, expenditures on this item will increase by 13%, to $48 billion. Against the background of these expenditures, low-income Russians are effectively left without support, and Gazprom cannot become a source of compensation, even within the framework of export contracts with China.