Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network and co-founder of the Consortium for Defence Information, shared his opinions with Espreso.“The scenario for the coming weeks is clear. Russia will continue to probe NATO’s ‘soft spots’ — from the Baltic Sea to the Danube — and increase the intensity of attacks, including ‘reconnaissance by fire’ with decoy drones,” the expert said. So far, NATO has not moved from the language of “mistakes” and “investigations” to the language of “responsibility” and “punishment” for the aggressor.According to him, NATO stands at the edge of its own identity — between an alliance that guarantees collective defense and a “club of interests” that can only offer moral support. Moscow observes this closely and aims to push the crisis to a point where the Alliance either accepts a new “normal” of violations or risks taking actions that would place the aggressor within an international legal framework.At the same time, in Samus’ view, the expanded Eastern Guardian operation in its current configuration is merely a reassurance, because without Ukraine, European NATO members cannot effectively deter Russia.“The operation is conducted without involving Europe’s most effective army — the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Eastern Guardian is not integrated with Ukraine’s air defense system and does not provide for a joint algorithm to intercept Russian Shahed drones or missiles over border areas, where the trajectories of Russian strikes most often overlap with Polish and Romanian air alarms,” he notes. He emphasizes that for the Kremlin, this is a window of opportunity: as long as NATO defends only its skies, Russia has room for further “blurred” maneuvers along the border.Mykhailo Samus stresses that since 2022, Ukraine has developed an air defense system adapted for counter-drone operations: with thousands of mobile units, a flexible tactical awareness system, and a large private production segment. Meanwhile, NATO and the EU are still only constructing a response to the “gradual storm” of drone threats, trying to combine traditional (and costly) systems with new sensors and interceptors.“Eastern Guardian could be a step in the right direction, but without integration with the Ukrainian echelon, it will only be a self-reassuring measure rather than a mechanism for guaranteed neutralization of the Russian threat,” the expert concludes.