Officials claim the fire was quickly extinguished, but the capabilities of this key refinery appear to have been severely affected, particularly when combined with strikes on the Leningrad region’s transport infrastructure used to move oil products.Ukrainian strikes also targeted the rail line between Oryol and Kursk, a crucial route for Russia’s military operations in Ukraine. Even Russian sources have acknowledged the scale of this combined attack.Despite Moscow’s attempts to downplay the damage, it is evident that Russian infrastructure — including oil refineries and railways — continues to suffer from Ukrainian attacks, illustrating that a war of attrition can work both ways, much to the dismay of Putin and his allies.Analysts have repeatedly highlighted that Russia’s oil refining sector is under severe strain, despite efforts to repair facilities damaged by Ukrainian strikes. A clear indicator of these problems is Russia’s increased oil sales to India at discounted prices, reflecting the inability of its refineries to process the current volume of crude.It is clear that if the war continues, Russia will keep losing its oil refining capacity, and some refineries could be reduced to ruins and never restored. New facilities would need to be built, but that requires peace — which the Russian political leadership is not considering at this stage. The question remains whether Putin will contemplate such plans in the foreseeable future.It can now be said that Russia’s oil refining industry has no development plans. Without Russian refineries and oil, the Russian leader cannot sustain a long war of attrition against Ukraine. A true Putin vicious circle.And, of course, the railway strikes are significant, as Ukrainian drones were able to paralyze two key types of transport in Russia. First, the rail network, which the Russian army relies on. The fewer railways functioning in the European part of Russia, the sooner Moscow will be forced to consider a pause in the Russia-Ukraine war.And aviation connections as well. Given the vast size of Russia, every airport closure caused by Ukrainian drone attacks results in serious losses for the economy, tourism, and overall logistics. It is especially important to paralyze the aviation sector at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump is making moves toward both dictators — Putin and Lukashenko.Indeed, the U.S. president’s decision to lift sanctions on the Belarusian state airline Belavia gives Russia a legal channel to obtain necessary aviation parts — not only in Belarus but also within Russia. Belavia can act as an intermediary for Aeroflot and other Russian airlines, as well as supply parts for Russia’s military-industrial complex and combat aircraft. Many aircraft components are dual-use goods, and Putin is certain to take advantage of this, essentially enabled by Trump’s actions toward Lukashenko.Thus, Russia should have no illusions: even if Washington creates conditions for its aviation sector to recover — repairing more civilian and military aircraft to continue the war against Ukraine — Russian airports must not operate nonstop. Its airspace must remain unsafe for both civilian and military flights, including the very aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities almost daily, which, following the White House decision, now gain even more capacity for such attacks.In this situation, strikes on Russia’s oil refining complex are meant to deprive its aviation of funding for the war. Strikes on the railways are intended to prevent the Russian army from transporting supplies and troops to Ukrainian territory, where the fiercest battles between Russian and Ukrainian forces are taking place.The presence of Ukrainian drones near Russian airports forces Russia to close its airspace and cancel flights, because even an aircraft repaired with Trump’s assistance cannot operate safely when a drone is hovering overhead.And we understand that the Russians will now use these same tactics over Central Europe, sending drones toward Poland and Romania to force our allies to close airports and disrupt the economies of countries supporting us. Thus, if we want to survive a war of attrition, the Russians must be met in kind. The fire in Kirishi is a striking example of how such retaliation against the aggressor can be carried out successfully.About the author: Vitaly Portnikov, journalist and laureate of the Shevchenko National Prize of UkraineThe editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.