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What Russia’s strike on Poland could mean for Ukraine

global.espreso.tv
Thu, 11 Sep 2025 17:59:00 +0300
What Russia’s strike on Poland could mean for Ukraine
Valentyn Badrak, director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies and co-founder of the Defense Information Consortium, shared his opinions with Espreso TV.“It’s no surprise that Poland was targeted. Since the early 1990s, the country has been shaped as a key U.S. outpost in Europe. For Putin, humiliating Poland is like delivering a personal slap to Trump. This came on the heels of the Russian dictator’s high-profile meetings with Trump in Alaska, followed by Xi Jinping,” the expert commented. According to him, Putin’s nonverbal message is: "I kill thousands, destroy cities in the heart of Europe, and I’m only respected more for it." The key point in this story, he says, will be Trump’s reaction to the incident in Poland.“Without visible U.S. leadership, Article 5 of NATO’s Charter and the principle of collective defense risk being hollow words,” Badrak stressed.At the same time, he noted, the attack on Polish airspace opens new chances for Ukraine — first of all, through greater attention to Poland, boosting cooperation and mutual support. “Together with Poland, it would be possible to scale up missile and drone production (something already underway through the Ukrainian-British tech hub) — in addition to Poland’s unique role as the hub for Western weapons going to Ukraine. Let’s not forget that Poland, as a major buyer of U.S. arms, has Patriot missiles and HIMARS munitions, including ATACMS ballistic missiles. That could matter in ensuring joint survival,” the expert said.The second chance, on a European level, lies in NATO’s collective response, which could ensure “closing skies over Ukraine” from Russian drones and missiles, including hypersonic ones. Jointly, Europe could also scale up counter-drone interceptors, air-defense drones, and the radars that support them. “With integration into the European defense space, there are many more versions of joint development and production of weapons than purely Ukrainian ones. And the fact that Putin's war is approaching a clash with NATO will force Ukraine to be accepted as an asset, as part of Europe that can actively defend itself.,” Badrak argued.The third chance, at a new geopolitical level, concerns the U.S. If Trump realizes the futility of trying to negotiate with Putin, it could force him into a geopolitical pivot, since his party includes many politicians who assess the situation more realistically. “As a businessman, Trump also cannot ignore the position of European allies in NATO to refuse American weapons, a phenomenon that could gain momentum and have a negative impact on the American military economy. U.S. arms exports in 2024 reached a record high of $318.7 billion. However, the consistent alienation of Europe could significantly reduce the profits of American defense companies and their commitment to Trump. Therefore, the purchase of Patriot, HIMARS, and hundreds of ballistic missiles for Ukraine would be a simultaneous contribution from the United States and Europe,” the expert noted.Badrak also recalled NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s statement in early July that if China decided to attack Taiwan, Putin would “most likely” strike Europe at the same time. “The recent incident in Poland could be the first step of such a scenario. For this reason, the Western camp cannot afford to continue showing weakness,” he concluded.Polish Armed Forces’ Operational Command put air defense systems and aviation on highest alert due to Russia’s night attack on Ukraine: Russian drones violated the country’s airspace.As a result of a Russian attack on the night of September 10, drone debris fell on a residential building in a village in Poland’s Lublin Voivodeship. No one was injured.Ukraine's President Zelenskyy says Ukraine is ready to help Poland develop an alert and air defense system. Meanwhile, European Commission President von der Leyen announces the EU will build a “drone wall” on the Russia border.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on the violation of Poland’s airspace by Russian drones, stating that Kyiv had warned Warsaw about the UAV movements.On Wednesday, September 10, NATO activated Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty after Russian drones violated Polish territory.
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