Content1. Offensive pace and main battles2. How much territory has Ukraine lost and how many troops Russia has lost3. Experts' opinions on Russia's summer offensiveInstead of quick breakthroughs and strategic victories that would have broken the resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and forced Ukraine to make concessions, the offensive turned into a bloody war of attrition with minimal territorial gains. In general, experts are unanimous: Moscow's ambitious plans failed due to the resilience of Ukrainian defense, logistical problems, and huge losses.Espreso covers this story in more detail.Offensive pace and main battlesRussian forces are advancing, and Ukrainian forces are defending — this is a story that has been going on de facto since the end of the fall of 2023. The Kursk operation may be an exception, but other parts of the frontline have seen only isolated tactical counteroffensives. This year's active phase of the Kremlin's so-called summer campaign began in the spring and increased in May-June, although preparations had been underway since late winter. Since then, Russian troops have been conducting simultaneous operations (with varying intensity) on several fronts: from Kharkiv and Sumy regions to Donetsk and the south (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson directions).“The Russians didn't have a clearly defined start to this summer campaign,” Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Finnish group Black Bird, told ABC News. "They stepped up their attacks along almost the entire front line around May and closer to June.From Moscow's point of view, their goals have not changed: to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and to create “buffer zones” in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions.On the Sumy front, which began in January but intensified in the spring, Russians seized about 200 square kilometers, advancing near Yunakivka and Oleksiyivka. However, Ukrainian counterattacks halted the offensive and in June, Kindrativka and Andriivka were recaptured.In the Kharkiv region, particularly near Kupiansk, Russian troops forced the Oskil River to create a bridgehead, but failed to capture the city, advancing only 6-8 kilometers.In the Zaporizhzhia sector, the gains were minimal, with no deep penetration. At the end of August, it was reported that Russian troops occupied two villages in the Dnipropetrovs'k region at once - Zaporizke and Novoheorhiivka. However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff denied this.The Kherson front remained stable, with minor clashes, but no attempts to cross the Dnipro river.So the main blow fell on the Donetsk region, where the goal was to surround key logistics centers, such as Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, in order to continue the movement to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. For this purpose, the enemy concentrated more than 100 ,000 soldiers in the Pokrovsk direction alone.Throughout the summer, the Russians tried to surround Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Chasiv Yar, and Kostiantynivka, but captured only a few nearby villages, forests, and fields. A breakthrough was observed only in mid-August in the Doprobillia area, when the Russian forces managed to penetrate the Ukrainian defense by 11 kilometers in almost a day. However, by the end of August, this breakthrough was stopped and the situation stabilized.How much territory has Ukraine lost and how many troops has Russia lostIn terms of numbers, the Russian advance is noticeable, but not commensurate with losses. Russia has gained only local tactical successes: a few villages, narrow advances and “pockets” in certain areas of the front, but without breaking the overall defense line.According to Deep State, in June, Russia occupied 556 square kilometers of Ukraine's territory, while in July it occupied 564 square kilometers, and in August it occupied about 450 square kilometers. That is, the total for the summer is more than 1,500 square kilometers (for comparison, the area of Kyiv is 847 square kilometers). The territorial gains indicate the intensity of the offensive, as during the spring of this year, the Russians gained 765 square kilometers. In total, this is about 2.3 thousand square kilometers. It should be noted that in the spring and summer of last year, according to the same Deep State, the enemy occupied more than 1,100 square kilometers. That is, the intensity of the Russian spring-summer offensive has doubled in a year.As for the losses, if we look at the General Staff's report, in order to capture more than 1,100 square kilometers last year, during the spring-summer campaign, Russia lost about 202,000 soldiers (dead and wounded), more than 2,000 tanks, more than 4,000 armored combat vehicles, 7,500 artillery systems, 10,000 vehicles and tankers, and many other weapons.Instead, this year, in the spring and summer, in order to capture 2,300 square kilometers, Russia lost almost 210,000 of its military (dead and wounded), 1,100 tanks, almost 2,000 armored combat vehicles, almost 8,500 artillery systems, 21,000 vehicles and tankers, and other equipment.This means that in a year's time, Russian forces have switched from tanks and armored vehicles to motor vehicles, whose losses have doubled.Experts' opinions on the summer offensiveGerman Bild wrote that the Russians failed in their summer offensive. The main indicator is the unsuccessful attempt to take Pokrovsk. Despite a breakthrough into the city center in August, the Russians were killed or captured in three weeks. The occupiers also failed to form a buffer zone."Under Russian control is less than 70 km of territory along the northern border," Bild notes.The media outlet suggests that due to a lack of any success in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, Putin was effectively forced to abandon his offensive plans. Hence the hints that Moscow is no longer demanding control over all occupied regions, but now aims to gain Donetsk, where it is making gradual advances.“The fourth summer of the war has shown that hopes for a quick Russian victory and the collapse of Ukrainian defense were in vain,” Bild emphasizes.On the other hand, German analysts emphasize, Ukrainian forces have intensified their attacks on Russian refineries that finance the war. They have managed to disable almost 20% of the capacity of Russian refineries, which has led to higher prices and fuel shortages in the country. According to the New York Times, Russia and Ukraine are attacking energy facilities in an effort to gain leverage away from the front. For Kyiv, it is to encourage Putin to come to the negotiating table, and for Moscow, it is to break public sentiment by forcing its demands by disrupting energy and gas supplies.Pavlo Lakiychuk, Head of Security Programs at the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI, told Ukrinform that Russia was planning a “grand summer offensive” in Donbas to break down the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense and force Ukraine to surrender. The Kremlin was counting on Ukraine's exhaustion, a reduction in Western aid, and a quick breakthrough that would lead to the collapse of Ukrainian positions. According to Lakiychuk, the plan was to attack Kurakhove and Selydove, capture Pokrovsk, cut the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway, and surround the North Donbas group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This would have threatened Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, as well as the Siverskyi salient. Russian generals hoped that the fall of these positions would trigger a chain reaction and the collapse of the Ukrainian defense along the entire front.But all of this was just another “delusion” of the Russians, as Vladyslav Selezniov, a military expert, reserve colonel of the Ukrainian Navy, spokesman for the Ukrainian General Staff (2014-2017), explained to Espreso. He noted that the Russians hoped to fully occupy the Donetsk region by August, but at the end of the summer they made only minor progress in some areas. About 30% of Donetsk region, including fortified areas, remains under Ukrainian control."Russia's dreams of capturing Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka or Kostiantynivka look unrealistic. A powerful network of engineering fortifications allows our forces to effectively deter the enemy. Yes, the Russian invaders are trying to occupy Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but they are not trying to do it through frontal assaults, as this is impossible, but by cutting logistics arteries (Pavlohrad-Pokrovsk highway, but not only). The answer to this question depends on the resources available," said Selezniov.According to the expert, no noticeable changes should be expected at the front until the weather conditions change, namely autumn rains, when the Russians will lose the advantage they have."In a month and a half, and possibly even earlier, autumn rains will begin. This will change the situation at the front. Now the Russians are using the cover of greenery and adapted equipment to advance deeper into our positions, for example, in the direction of Dobropillia. But when the leaves fall and the dirt roads turn to mud, their advantage will disappear. They will not be able to advance on foot with the same efficiency. However, the factor of drones, missiles and artillery remains, and the enemy is actively using it to try to destroy our positions," the analyst noted.Vladyslav Selezniov adds that despite 700,000 Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine, Putin does not have the resources to radically change the situation at the front. This emphasizes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have built an effective defense.As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted at a briefing on August 29, Russia “cannot occupy us today.”“And today, Ukraine cannot fully restore all its territories by force. We lack the strength, and so do they,” Zelenskyy emphasized.When the Russian dictator realizes this is the key question for diplomatic success in this deadlock. As various analysts agree, Vladimir Putin is manipulating the topic of peace talks, dragging them out and issuing unrealistic ultimatums, still hoping for victory.