Right now, no one wants to clash with Trump. The existence of a Ukrainian-Russian negotiating group is the only thing Trump could present as his diplomatic achievement in ending the Russia-Ukraine war. For Ukraine, American weapons are the priority; for Russia, it is crucial to keep Trump from imposing harsher sanctions. That’s why negotiations will continue, but at best, they may only result in agreements on humanitarian issues and prisoner exchanges.For Russia to be ready to talk about peace seriously, different circumstances are needed. Such circumstances could theoretically arise by autumn.First, the end of Russia’s summer offensive campaign, which will not result in the collapse of the Ukrainian front. In the autumn-winter period, offensive operations will be more difficult to carry out.Second, the sanctions that the U.S. will adopt in one form or another. The effectiveness of these sanctions could also influence Putin’s willingness to engage in serious talks.Finally, third, other third parties may be involved in the negotiations. For example, China, which could use the Russia card in its own game with the U.S. and the European Union.For now, things remain as they are — the sides will continue negotiating just for the sake of negotiating.SourceAbout the author. Serhiy Taran, political scientist.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.