Content1. Russia’s spring-summer offensive cost as many troops as Spain’s entire military2. Russia’s main targets: Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kostiantynivka, and Kupiansk3. What’s next for Russia’s offensive, and when will it end?But this doesn’t mean Ukrainians can breathe a sigh of relief, thinking Russian forces are simply crashing against the wall of the Armed Forces. Every new day of war brings new deaths, not only among the occupiers but, sadly, also among many of our own soldiers. That’s why Ukrainian troops are sometimes forced to retreat before a superior enemy. Despite suffering heavier losses, Russian forces continue to push forward, gradually seizing small portions of Ukrainian territory, something DeepState regularly reports.Espreso will provide a closer look at Russia’s summer military campaign, the current situation, and what to expect next.Russia’s spring-summer offensive cost as many troops as Spain’s entire military                                                                                                                                           Russian advances in Donbas as of April 1, photo: DeepStateMap                                                                                                                                         Russian advances in Donbas as of July 30, photo: DeepStateMapRussia’s spring-summer campaign began back in April, although preparations for it had been underway since late winter. During this period, Russian military activity sharply increased in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk sectors. The escalation is evident in the pace of territorial occupation, while in February–March the Russians captured 325 square kilometers, in April–May that figure doubled to 632 square kilometers.In summer, another front became active, the Zaporizhzhia sector, where Russia deployed significant forces in an attempt to reach the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region.June and July marked the peak of Russia’s summer offensive. In June alone, Russia occupied 556 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, and in July, about 540 square kilometers (according to DeepState data). Altogether, over the four months of the spring-summer campaign, Kremlin forces seized more than 1,700 square kilometers. To visualize: that’s the equivalent of two Kyivs (the capital covers 847 square kilometers).However, to achieve this, Russia expended a force equivalent to, for example, the entire army of Spain (the Spanish Armed Forces number about 123,000 personnel). According to Ukrainian Armed Forces estimates, over the four months, Russia lost 136,500 soldiers (killed and wounded), 562 tanks, 1,210 armored vehicles, 5,359 artillery systems, 104 multiple launch rocket systems, and this list is far from complete.The main blow was dealt in Donbas. As of the end of July, Russian forces had occupied over 67% of the Donetsk region: out of 1,298 settlements, 847 are under temporary occupation, according to Vadym Filashkin, head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration. In fact, almost no territory south of Pokrovsk remains under Ukrainian control, meaning the entire southern part of the region is occupied.“Every day, Russian occupiers strike the region about 3,000 times using all types of available weaponry. The most dangerous areas are those where the distance to the front line is less than 10 kilometers. However, the Russians are also shelling relatively remote cities. As a result, being anywhere in the Donetsk region is currently unsafe. Eighteen communities remain in the active combat zone, with around 23,000 people still living there. In dangerous settlements, forced evacuation of families with children has been announced and is ongoing,” Filashkin said.Russia’s main targets: Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kostiantynivka, and KupianskAlthough the Russians have stretched the active frontline with their risky actions in the Sumy region and increased attacks toward the Dnipropetrovsk region, it is no secret that the main goal of the summer campaign is to capture major cities in the Donetsk region. Primarily, this means Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, Chasiv Yar, and Kupiansk (which is in Kharkiv region). Capturing these would give them a tactical advantage to continue their campaign to seize the northern Donetsk region and to actively threaten the Dnipropetrovsk region.The threat of losing Pokrovsk, home to Ukraine’s only coke-chemical mine vital for the country’s industry, has been discussed since last autumn. Since then, the Pokrovsk sector has consistently been the hottest front, with Russian forces approaching the city more closely and their sabotage and reconnaissance groups entering it more frequently. A high-ranking officer told Hromadske that "on July 29 alone, about a dozen Russians were eliminated in the city."The spokesperson for the Khortytsia operational-strategic group, Viktor Trehubov, said on Espreso TV that at the beginning of summer, Russia concentrated over 110,000 troops on the Pokrovsk front (now there are over 100,000). The large number of Russian soldiers and the use of guided aerial bombs give the Russian army an advantage it is trying to exploit to encircle the city.“A settlement has strategic importance when its loss or defeat in battle fundamentally changes the course of the war. After that, victory or any acceptable peace terms can no longer be expected. I wouldn’t say Pokrovsk holds such strategic significance. However, the city does have operational-tactical importance. If we lose control of Pokrovsk, the Russians will be able to advance toward the Dnipropetrovsk region, and then we will be facing battles there,” said military analyst Denys Popovych on Espreso TV, emphasizing that the situation on the Pokrovsk front is worsening.Ukrainian Armed Forces officer and political scientist Andriy Tkachuk expressed an even more forthright view on Espreso TV, saying the situation on the Pokrovsk front is truly critical.“The situation is not difficult; the situation is critical. Russian forces are indeed encircling the city, pushing further from the south toward Udachne to complete this semi-ring and try to close it. From the north, fighting continues toward Krasnyi Lyman to advance on Pokrovsk. The Russians have long held positions from which they can shell Dobropillia. Overall, the Pokrovsk–Kramatorsk–Kostiantynivka front is heavily saturated with guided aerial bombs, with up to 30 dropped per day until recently. The Russians aim to capture Pokrovsk by the end of the year, they need a major victory,” he said.Ukrainian Armed Forces officer, Lieutenant Colonel Serhiy Tsekhotsky, told Espreso TV that the Ukrainian command is sending additional reserves to the Pokrovsk sector to hold back the Russian offensive.“The Russians are trying to capture as much Ukrainian territory as possible before the weather changes. This is evident everywhere. Today, the largest number of Russian assaults and attempts to break through our defenses occur on the Pokrovsk front. One-third of daily combat engagements take place there. Traditionally, the Russians conduct infantry assaults, continuously advancing in small groups,” Tsekhotsky said.“If the Russians take control of Rodynske, which lies north of Pokrovsk on the map, they will effectively block the city’s entrances, and ‘six brigades could be encircled,’” one of the key officers from the Pokrovsk front told Hromadske.Kostiantynivka has long been under threat due to its importance as a logistics hub. Russian forces are tightening the ring from the south, east, and west, dropping up to 25 guided aerial bombs daily, The Economist reported back in June. One-third of the city’s buildings have been destroyed or damaged, and most residents have left. However, to attempt to capture Kostiantynivka, they must first break through the defenses of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, where urban fighting is already ongoing. This allows the Russians to film their propaganda videos about the so-called “capture” of the city.Regarding Kupiansk, it is the second most important target for Russian forces after the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka direction, military analyst Vasyl Pekhno said on Espreso TV.“As of now, the Russians do not have significant capabilities to exert serious pressure. They are mostly concentrated on the right bank of the Oskil River and north of Kupiansk. There, infantry operates mainly because the Russian occupiers have been unable to move equipment across the Oskil. At the same time, on the left bank of the Oskil, the intensity of Russian offensive actions has significantly decreased. It seems the Russians are unable to apply full pressure on all frontline sectors simultaneously and create hyper-giant problems like those currently occurring near Pokrovsk,” Pekhno noted.What’s next for Russia’s offensive, and when will it end?It is clear that any offensive eventually ends, just like any war. However, after Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive in 2023, one can say that a long and large Russian offensive continues, starting with the capture of Avdiivka in early 2024 and, with some pauses, ongoing to this day.Ukrainian forces conducted a campaign in the Kursk region, achieving success over six months, but on all other fronts, it has been mainly defense with local counterattacks, as seen in Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Compared to last year, if resources allow, the Russians could resume active offensives again by November–December. This is especially likely if they receive reinforcements from North Korea, which Reuters has already reported based on South Korean intelligence.Therefore, the Kremlin dictator clearly has no interest in stopping his military machine, which, although stalling on the fields of the Donetsk region, continues to advance steadily. Even threats from President Donald Trump, who now wants Russia and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement by August 8 or face significant sanctions on energy resources, find no response in Moscow. On the contrary, it seems that whenever Trump mentions any progress in negotiations or issues new criticism of Putin, the latter intensifies bombing Ukrainian cities and villages with drones and missiles. As the New York Post notes: “Moscow mocks Trump’s efforts to end the war.”Moreover, as the Kremlin’s chief diplomat said in China, Russia is used to living under the world’s harshest sanctions and will cope with new ones. Indeed, by shifting the country’s economy to a war footing, relying on its shadow fleet, and purchasing dual-use goods, Russia continues to manage and sustain Putin’s aggressive policy — one that only increases his power, which he fears losing.Therefore, as the Institute for the Study of War has long emphasized, only timely and sufficient military and financial aid from Western countries, and consequently significant defeats for Russia on the battlefield, can force the Russian leader to abandon the "special military operation" goals (the capitulation of Ukraine) and come to a real negotiating table, not the staged one seen in Istanbul."Such defeats will not happen in a few weeks and will likely require several months or entire military campaigns. This will be possible only if the West agrees to properly arm and support the Ukrainian Armed Forces so they can effectively carry out such operations," analysts at ISW believe.But for now, this remains out of reach, although Trump’s new more pro-Ukrainian stance brings some optimism. However, Ukraine’s budget deficit is rapidly growing and will continue to increase due to the war and huge defense expenditures. It is becoming increasingly difficult even to pay the military. Therefore, as Bloomberg reports, Volodymyr Zelenskyy plans to appeal to Europe for help in paying Ukrainian soldiers’ salaries. While Europeans have previously refused to do this and were only willing to pay for weapons, Zelenskyy says Ukrainian soldiers “themselves can be the weapon that protects everyone.”“As Ukraine’s mobilization campaign loses popularity among a population tired of war, Zelenskyy’s government wants to motivate more volunteers by offering significant payments to those who sign military contracts. Russia has long been offering large bonuses and high salaries to attract tens of thousands of people to its army each month, seeking to avoid a repeat of the public unrest that arose when Putin ordered a partial mobilization several months after the invasion began in 2022,” Bloomberg writes.On the last day of July, CNN published a report from Donbas, where journalists witnessed firsthand the “rapid changes in territorial control” around Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. Commanders working in these areas said that the encirclement of Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, or even Kupiansk in the north could happen within weeks. The fighting could resemble battles like those in Avdiivka or Vuhledar, lasting several months.CNN also highlights that Ukrainian forces are suffering from a shortage of personnel. Specifically, the commander of the 93rd brigade complains about the lack of reinforcements and even the concealment of the truth about the frontline at the official level.“No one wants to fight,” he said. “The old personnel remain; they are tired and want to be replaced, but no one is replacing them.”The founder of the charitable foundation Close the Sky Over Ukraine and former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (2006–2010), Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, told Espreso that August will not bring any relief.“In addition to the 100,000-strong Russian grouping concentrated near Pokrovsk, the Russians are forming another roughly 100,000-strong force focusing on the political aspect in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Intense fighting continues on the border with the Dnipropetrovsk region. Additionally, the Russians have pulled in reserves to the Zaporizhzhia direction,” Romanenko noted.He added that recently, the Russians have not been using armored vehicles as actively, instead accumulating hundreds of units.“Therefore, the second phase of the 2025 campaign by the Russian armed forces will become very dangerous starting in August. In the fall, they will deploy these resources. Ukraine is facing very difficult times. The Ukrainian Defense Forces need to strengthen their capabilities as quickly as possible,” Romanenko emphasized.However, not everyone agrees with such categorical conclusions. For example, The Telegraph wrote at the end of June that despite the increasing intensity of battles, the lack of success on strategic fronts indicates the exhaustion of Russia’s potential. Therefore, it is unlikely that the Russians will be able to change the situation anytime soon. Analysts interviewed by the outlet acknowledge that Russia does have a chance to capture Kostiantynivka or Pokrovsk, but this will not lead to the collapse of Ukrainian defense. Instead, it will open a new chapter of fighting over the last key cities of the Donetsk region, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.Given the current situation, Russia’s ongoing summer offensive is unlikely to end quickly. Most likely, it will gradually transition into a second, even more intense phase in August–September. Fighting in Donbas, especially around Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Kupiansk, will remain extremely fierce, as the Russian command continues to amass reserves and equipment in an attempt at a strategic breakthrough.The end of this campaign depends on two key factors: the pace and scale of Western aid to Ukraine, and the Ukrainian army’s ability to hold defensive lines while inflicting heavy losses on the enemy. If these conditions are not met, experts say the fighting will not stop. The creeping Russian offensive will continue until the end of the year and the arrival of winter, forcing Ukraine to retreat defensively. Of course, the factor of President Trump and his promised sanctions should not be forgotten, but so far, these threats have not affected Putin’s willingness to continue the war.