But let me repeat — that’s just a catalyst for processes already underway. It seems Trump had already mentally budgeted those same 50 days for a potential deal with the EU, and now that it’s been signed, it’s accelerating everything else.What’s beneath the surface of this iceberg is anyone’s guess. But let’s try not to suggest versions, but rather hypotheses about what Trump might do next:1. I don’t believe Trump will take any drastic steps to escalate the situation around shipping in the Baltic Sea. The chances that Russian tankers will start getting detained en masse in August are minimal. Likewise, no one is rushing to pass the Graham bill tomorrow."2. Everything Trump is doing right now isn’t really aimed at Russia — it’s aimed at China. The agreement with the EU has freed his hands: Europe will now move in lockstep with the U.S., and upcoming talks with China will, in most cases, reflect a unified EU–U.S. position. For China, let’s not forget, the European market is just as important as the American one."3. There are now two possible scenarios. In the first, Trump tries to fast-track negotiations with China and strike some kind of deal quickly — and in that case, he might actually show up at China’s Victory Day celebration over Japan as a symbolic “winner.” This option doesn’t look very realistic yet, though neither China nor the U.S. wants trade escalations — and certainly not armed conflict. If this path does unfold, China would likely begin pressing Russia to end the war, and the U.S. would push Ukraine into making tough compromises (what exactly those would be is open to speculation, though most possibilities are already on the table).The second scenario: in the next couple of weeks, Trump signs a deal with India and the Gulf States to replace Russian oil — and then turns to talks with China.We won’t have to wait long to find out. But one thing is certain: no one is about to slap 100% or 500% tariffs on anything. The game is going to be far more complex. And I’ll say this again: we need to start resetting our relationship with China — the inevitable second pole of the global order.SourceAbout the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.